Meteorological Spring And The Biggest Storm of Winter Are On Our Doorstep

It’s a confusing time of the year weather-wise. The temperatures were warm today and there was plenty of spring snow to enjoy, even though there was also a very chilly wind that made it feel like winter. That confusion also extends to the calendar, as Friday is the first day of meteorological spring, but it will also be the peak of the biggest winter storm of the season. As predicted, the Winter Storm Warning was upgraded to a Blizzard Warning, beginning at 4am tomorrow for the west slope of the Sierra. The Reno office calls for a 10am start, so somewhere between those is a reasonable guess.

It hardly makes sense to talk about today’s ski conditions, as it’s all about to be drastically different. But here’s a quick synopsis: There was something for everybody. Some friends spent the day chasing down every last bit of perfect corduroy. Another group of friends was actively searching out every last bit of soft winter snow in the Palisades and Medium Yellow. Myself, I was on a mission to ski as much spring “almost corn” as I could, given that this will become a rare item starting tomorrow.

This is not your typical storm. It’s a big deal and you should treat it as such. We’ve been so used to under performing and downgraded storms this season that many are just expecting that to happen. The thing is that there has been an incredible amount of model to model consistency and run to run consistency on this beast. After slightly backing off for a few runs yesterday, the models doubled down their bets again today. I really respect Rob Carlmark, from ABC10 in Sacramento, and he posted exactly my thoughts this morning:

Just look at the size of this thing, headed right out of the Gulf of Alaska, with a strong polar jet drawing in more cold moisture. All of those popcorn clouds behind the front represent the colder air that will bring continued snow showers and low snow levels into late Saturday night to Sunday morning. Potential snow levels could drop to about Colfax by Sunday.

The most recent run of the GEFS called for up to 95″ in the Alpine Meadows area. I think my final projection for this storm is going to remain at 6 to 8 feet for the ski area through Sunday. Winds are going to be problematic Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Update: Looking at the point forecast for Alpine Meadows and adding up the potential snowfall numbers, it shows the potential for 116 to 153 inches of snow at the crest of Alpine Meadows. Those are huge numbers and I will remind you that the point forecasts have pretty consistently “overdone it” this season. I feel far more success in looking at the GEFS Ensemble, which is the number on the above map.

Update 2: Reading the Sacramento NOAA forecast discussion Thursday morning and they specifically mentioned the types of totals seen in the point forecasts as being a real possibility. Ten to thirteen feet of snow would be a very big deal…

Highlights From The Official Blog

The official operations blog just came out and pretty much said the same things that I would have figured. I will add in some extra commentary to what Liz said.

• Thursday: The windiest part of the storm is expected to hit before the snowiest part of the storm. We will likely see winds at 100+mph over the ridges by the time any lifts roll tomorrow. Lift operations will likely be limited and possibly short lived, giving Monday as an example. Once the snow begins, visibility will suck for both skiing and driving.
• Friday: Wind and very high snowfall rates are going to create extremely hazardous conditions for everyone. You’re going to be happier if you just expect that the mountain will be closed and that roads may be closed at any time.
• Saturday: See above. By this point the snow will be so deep that even resort personnel are going to have a very difficult time moving around the mountain, if they can even get to the mountain.
• Sunday: Expect limited operations and a very slow opening of any terrain. The terrain that opens first will likely be lower level terrain that will be too deep for 99.7% of all skiers and riders. Avalanche concerns will be extreme.

There’s a lot of talk going on about how this storm compares to others historically. The official blog post says we had a 92″ storm last year, but there’s likely some marketing department spin on that number. Bryan Allegretto said in his post this morning that this could be the biggest storm of the last 4 years. Looking at a list of big one storm totals posted on Twitter today, the number one storm took place on March 29-31, 1982. For those that aren’t completely in the loop, that is the storm that preceded the big avalanche at Alpine Meadows that killed 7 people.

This storm has the potential to get close to that much snowfall. But not all storms are the same, as it’s not just about the depth of the new snowfall. You also have to factor in the wind strength and wind direction to consider how the mountain may be snow loaded. You also would have to consider what remediation work can be done during the storm cycle. You have to know that the potential for disaster is on the minds of anyone that works on the mountain. The safety of mountain personnel is more important than any of our need to slide on, or through, snow. So practice patience.

There’s More Storms On The Way

This storm will barely get a chance to finish before the next one is on the way. Below is the 500mb Height Anomaly GIF that shows how the first low is deeper and more energetic. The second low is currently in the Monday to Wednesday timeframe. Note that the low drops farther south, which means we could see even lower snow levels. As of today, it could bring another 1-3 feet of snow. Some forecasts are calling for snow in the Sacramento Valley next week. Interesting to see but very problematic for farmers.

The Pacific satellite looks very active. I counted four low pressure systems on their way to the west coast as March begins. I refuse to use the overdone “March Miracle”….maybe Mega-March?

Stay safe…maybe we will get a few turns in tomorrow…maybe not.