UPDATED: AR You Ready?

You’ve probably got the memo already that both Alpine Meadows and Palisades Tahoe have moved up their opening date 5 days, now scheduled for November 22nd. It’s not surprising that they made this decision given that both Northstar and Sugar Bowl have also set the 22nd as their opening date. There were a few years during JMA ownership where Alpine Meadows did not open until December and frankly that was embarrassing. But given that the new President of Palisades/Alpine Meadows formerly was at Northstar, well she had to at least match their date. We’re totally appreciative here.

Fortunately there has been some decent opportunities for snowmaking over the last few days and all mountains have been blowing as much as possible. At Alpine Meadows, most of that effort has continued to be on the TLC zone. I did see that they were also blowing snow near the base of Roundhouse, which means they are thinking about the possibility of using that chair. Last year that meant a WROD down Rock Garden and then a right turn onto Weasel One, returning traffic to the TLC zone.

There are a couple of smaller systems in the works for this week that will boost the snowpack a few inches here and there.

They’ve got some plans for opening day, as they say it’s the 75th anniversary of that place we can’t say anymore. There will be some schwag given out with 75th Anniversary Palisades Tahoe emblazoned. How many? Who knows… the updated total for opening day tanks at Mount Rose was 300 given away. There’s $75 lift tickets the first four days for those without a pass, in celebration of the 75th anniversary. A DJ is scheduled and free breakfast burritos will be offered…again quantities not announced.

It’s not the 75th year for Alpine Meadows. Alpine Meadows first operated in 1961, so it’s 63 years this December. Truth be told, it is only the 4th anniversary of Palisades Tahoe, and they should be selling a $4 ticket for the first day over on the other side. Honestly the only thing interesting to me here is the mountain opening, and maybe a free breakfast burrito. What are the odds Captain Dan?

Boom Or Bust

The news has traveled pretty far and wide that we could see the first big atmospheric river (AR) event of the season. The models were all over the place for the last week, and suddenly this AR started appearing about 2 days ago. But yesterday it looked like it could be a real problem. Here’s is Daniel Swain’s tweet on the subject from yesterday:

That particular model showed the most likely “landfall” for the firehose of the AR would be on the southern Oregon coast. That would have kept us on the warm side of the jetstream and snow levels were projected to be up in the 8-9000 foot range. This would have been a very bad thing, as it would bring almost no new snow and potentially damage the minimal base that has been created by snowmaking teams. In particular, running water coming downhill can really wash things out pretty quickly. A little bit of rain on the snowpack is not a big deal, but a lot of rain is very bad. In California, AR events are known for both bringing copious amounts of snow, or copious amounts of rain on snow that can lead to serious flooding.

Overnight, my hope was that the focus of the AR would move way north, keeping us out of the rain, or way south, bringing in colder air and snow. The last 6 runs of the GEFS show the latter solution being favored at this moment. This GIF displays the last 14 model runs for total QPF (rainfall) through next Sunday. Note the increasing amounts toward the end of the run:

Then there’s the question of snow versus rain. This GIF shows the last 14 runs for total snowfall by next Sunday. You can see that it also shows a dramatic increase in the amount of snowfall, and that snowfall stretches farther south. The last run shows the potential for two to four feet of snow.

What’s not clear is exact snow levels. As long as they can stay near lake level, we are golden. It won’t be ideal powder skiing, but at this time of year we want a wet spackle that will offer a solid base for the rest of the season, allowing more of the mountain to open sooner.

But here’s the caveat, these models are still 5-7 days out and that is only in the realm of possibility, which means it could happen, but the models could also flip and go back to a rainier solution or a drier solution that we may not like. “Boom or bust” is the operative phrase here. Also, keep in mind that AR events are also notorious for bringing very strong winds to the Sierra, generally over 100 mph at the crest. The Hotter Wheels lift is generally a champ when it comes to high winds, but it’s something to consider.

Update: Daniel Swain just did a new blog post because this is one of the biggest AR events of the last two year. Overall, it’s not great news for us as skiers. Here’s some highlights:

• It currently rates as an AR-4 event on a scale of 5. It quite possibly will become a 5 by the time it’s over.
• There will be more than one wave, with three being currently forecast. The first two of these waves are expected to be warmer as there is a strong tropical connection to a very strong low pressure system, known recently as a bomb cyclone.
• Swain expects snow levels to run at 8-9000 feet for much of this event, not dropping until the very tail end of the event early next week. Ouch. That could change if the jet stream drops significantly further south, say toward Mammoth. Man, I hope that happens.
• This is not looking like a great snowpack booster for most Sierra ski resorts. Higher areas like Mount Rose and Mammoth should do okay for snowpack but will be impacted by high winds.
• Northstar just reported that they will open early on Thursday the 21st, which is an interesting flex. I would not be surprised to see our favorite mountain follow suit…weather and conditions permitting.

Read the full details at WeatherWest.com, only if you can stomach the forecast. Myself, I am reading the scary news, and then just hoping for the best, very much like the next four years.

It’s Not Shoulder Season Anymore

We have not talked about it here yet, but this is the first fall season that we have had a true shoulder season since the pandemic in 2020. When more people moved to Tahoe semi-permanently during the pandemic, thanks to the ability to “work from home”, we just stopped having shoulder seasons. In Tahoe, it usually defines the time when campgrounds are closed but ski areas are not open yet. The trails get less crowded, the stores are more empty and you can just enjoy the quiet of your neighborhood.

This year, with more people returning to in person jobs, the number of full timers seems to have decreased and it has been delightful around Tahoe to have the break of a true shoulder season.

The recent snowfall around Tahoe, no matter how little, has changed all of that. Mount Rose opened, followed by Mammoth, then the big three resorts in North Tahoe announced opening dates being pushed up. News cameras from every station showed up at every mountain in Tahoe, showing preparations for the season underway. I have dubbed this the “KCRA effect” but there are others to blame as well. Mount Rose was an absolute madhouse on Saturday, with all parking lots filled on the Rose side with only 2 chairlifts running. I saw the first sledders of the season in Tahoe Meadows, trying to make it work with three inches of snow in 12 inches of sage brush. The Safeway parking lot, filled to the brim and lines were forming at the local Tesla charging station near my house. The shoulder season is over. A big snowfall next weekend will encourage more visitation and potentially some longer lift lines until ski areas can open more terrain.

I am ready for the change. The bikes are stowed for now and I am looking forward to some Treats bacon and turns at my home mountain…and possibly a breakfast burrito.

LOL if you are wondering about the “featured image” for this post…that’s what the AI image generator at WordPress thought you needed to see.