Not An Ideal Winter Storm

It’s actually not winter yet by any measure. Meteorological winter starts on December 1st and Hallmark winter is another few weeks later. So it’s probably unfair to want a full on winter storm just yet. That storm that is moving in overnight is absolutely a powerful storm, one of the biggest seen in years along the northern coast of California, Oregon and Washington. Just reading some of the chatter on weather blogs tonight: Winds over 100mph around Crescent City and rain expected in feet rather than inches; the big volcanoes to the north will be plastered with snow, with models calling for 200-300 inches of snow on Mount Shasta over the next week.

Fortunately here in North Tahoe, the effect will not be quite as dramatic. The winds are expected to really become a problem over the next day or so, with ridge gusts approaching the 100mph. Over time, the lower elevations will feel that pull, with the foothills on the eastern side of the Sierra expecting 40 mph winds Wednesday. A Red Flag alert has been hoisted in western Nevada for tomorrow. This area has already experienced two big brush fires this year, the Davis Fire and the more recent Callahan fire. This region has not seen much rain or snow this fall, and a downed power line could easily spark another fire.

Update: Winds at Alpine Meadows are already gusting to 115 mph at Ward Mountain at 6am Wednesday.

For this reason, Liberty Energy has called for the possibility of a Public Safety Outage on Wednesday for the area. These are the same lines that also bring power to the Truckee Donner Public Utility District and much of Lake Tahoe. Notices were sent out this evening warning customers that power could be shut off at 6am tomorrow and may not be restored for 1-2 days. That explains why I am here doing this blog post at 10:30pm, before I find myself with no power and likely no internet.

What’s The Current Thinking On Rain And Snow?

That is always the big question when it comes to atmospheric river events. I can tell you where the models have been trending, but that does not mean that is anything you can absolutely count on. That firehose of water can be very unpredictable and move around.

Palisades Tahoe & Alpine Meadows advanced their opening day to Friday, November 22nd. Because Northstar announced they were then going to open on the 21st, that of course lead to thoughts whether our favorite mountains might match that date. Right now, it looks a bit soggy for late Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. That’s not to say it’s going to rain that whole time, but any precipitation that falls on the lower part of the mountain on either side of the ridge will be of the liquid rain sort. There’s definitely conflicting thoughts on that. Let’s start with the automated snow level forecast from NOAA Reno:

I just about had a heart attack seeing those high snow levels! Then I noticed the dates…so this forecast is no help at all. The next piece to look at is the point forecast for Alpine Meadows, at about the elevation of the top of Roundhouse. It does not look all that horrific.

Yes, that sounds not so bad, as it only mentions rain on Thursday and snow all other days. The problem is that the point forecasts are automatically generated by computer models, with no human intervention. The get updated with new model runs and there’s not a great way to blend various model runs to get a more accurate picture.

When we listen to the smart humans, the professional weather forecasters at NOAA, and well known weather scientists, like the oft mentioned Daniel Swain of WeatherWest.com – well, it looks more dicey. The humans are in disagreement with the automated models. The humans are expecting snow levels to run 8,000-9,000 feet Wednesday, Thursday and into Friday. Most of the forecast discussions and bloggers I have read today don’t expect snow levels to drop until Saturday. That won’t be a big drop, but it should be to base levels.

I mentioned in my last post that rain can be a real problem for the relatively thin snowpack created by snowmaking teams. Looking at where things sit now, we could sneak by without too much pain as the huge amounts of rain you may hear about are mostly falling on the west slope of the Sierra, with little making it past the crest. Here’s a sample run of the NAM short range model for total rainfall through Saturday. It looks wet and wild for much of NorCal. But that point detail on the map is right about mid-Alpine Meadows. This run shows less than an inch of rain on the east side of the crest. We can live with that.

Beyond that, theoretically we get snow. Here’s the total snowfall through Thanksgiving Day from that same model run, at the same point.

Again these are not numbers to count on, I am throwing them out there as a sign that there is hope for a good amount of snow, but we are going to have to be patient. This snow is not likely to be the fun “Powder Day!!!” snow. It’s more likely to be the kind of spackle we need to cover the things that are not kind to your bases or your body.

Will The Mountain Actually Open Friday?

That has not been answered. Obviously, it depends on the actual rainfall amounts vs snowfall amounts. But the bigger factor that could play a part is the potential for a power outage over the next 48 hours. There is a huge amount of preparation that needs to happen to prep the mountain, the lodge and the staff for opening. Making that happen without power could be asking too much. The possibility of a Public Safety Power Outage was not announced until around 6pm tonight, so mountain ops teams really haven’t had time to talk about how that may affect their plans.

Hopefully this in not indicative of how this winter will go when it comes to storms…but this is not a winter storm.