This Storm Is A Yugo…But Next Week…

If you did not live in the 1980’s, you may not understand the reference to the Yugo. It was a cheap imported car from Yugoslavia that was available in the US from 1985 until 1992. Suffice it to say that it was slow, not very powerful, the air conditioning was never cold enough, and it was just not that reliable. All of those things also describe the current storm, and the previous storm. The Yugo was better than riding your Schwinn 10 speed, and in the same way, this storm is better than dust on crust. Eventually though, you end up wanting to trade up to a better model. Next week, it looks like we trade up to a Toyota Camry, and then possibly a Porsche.

Only an inch of snow had fallen by the time the lifts rolled this morning, with none of that sticking on the road or in the parking lot. The temperature was barely freezing and I found myself wishing I had my SkiGee as we walked out to Roundhouse. A thin frosting over groomed slopes is fun, but in looking up Alpine Bowl from the top of Roundhouse, the visibility looked pretty good at Summit. You could even spot the antennas along Ward Peak. It made it easier to convince ski friends to head to Summit.

Oddly, Summit was almost wind free, which is not a normal thing for Sierra storms. Sunspot was delightful as always, with twice as much new snow as the lower mountain. But my run of the day was D8, which offered smooth fluffy turns that felt a bit more like a storm day. It required several repeats. Lower on the mountain, we found fun on Sympathy Ridge, Rolls and Knolls and Yellow Chairline. It was critical to avoid those areas that were in the sun earlier in the week, developing ruts and chunder. Sunday School (Andy calls it Gods Knob) was pretty awful, as was Chicken Leg.

We ventured over to Scott a couple of times today where the skiing was just not as good. These weak storms with little wind get stopped at the crest, and much less snow was making it toward Scott and Lakeview today. I would estimate the new snow depths this afternoon at 3-5 inches at Summit by midday, and more like an angry inch or two at Scott. I never went to Sherwood or Lakeview today, based on that idea that they have seen a lot of sun recently.

So it was a good to very good ski day, as long as you knew where to find the greatest amounts of softer snow. You can’t call it a powder day if you need a SkiGee and there is no snow accumulating in the parking lot. Theoretically, tomorrow will be about the same or slightly better. Another 3-5 inches is forecast for tonight and a bit more during the day tomorrow. None of this adds up to deep powder, just a little bit softer skiing and riding.

The weekend starts on Friday. While temperatures will remain reasonably cold, it is supposed to be sunny. That will rapidly cook all of that new snow that is not very north facing. Temperatures get springlike again over the weekend, with highs into the 40’s. That new snow will likely become manky and or sticky. It’s that time of the year where powder is short-lived. Yes you will find a turn or two, but don’t bother packing a snorkel.

Trading In These Weak Storms For Something Bigger & Better

There is still some very good signs for a significant pattern change as we head into next week. I am always cautioning that the idea of a “March Miracle” is a rare thing, but we could be headed in that direction if everything lines up. So first let’s look at the GEFS (the more reliable ensemble model) for total snowfall through next Thursday night. It’s still showing 30″ of snow during that time frame. There have now been more than 25 runs in a row that have show that scenario, and most of the other models show agreement. It’s rare to see that level of consistency. Also note how wide that band of orange is, which is an indication of lower snow levels.

The first storm on Monday & Tuesday is the “door opener” and those storms are generally a bit weaker as energy is used to break down any ridges. Most of this snow will likely fall Wednesday into Thursday night. Looking farther out into the forecast, here’s the GEFS total snowfall over the next 16 days. That is showing 60+ inches of snow over that time period. With the two little storms this week, that would put us at “average snowfall’ for the month with 10 days still to go. In the context of this season, that would be a “March Miracle.”

The easiest thing to look at for why that may happen is the easy to read PNA Index. It has been positive since about day 5 of the entire ski season, meaning at best we have seen “dirty ridging” that leads to inside sliders. For the first time since mid-November we are looking at a trough in the Pacific.

There’s questions about how long that lasts, but for now it’s through the end of the forecast period. One thing I have mentioned before is that I am always looking for a reason that will explain a pattern change. There’s a forecast collapse of the “polar vortex”. Here’s the picture, then I will explain below.

For most of this winter we have been like the picture on the left. The stable polar vortex means the jet stream stays in a neat path at a very high latitude. Does this sound familiar? Storms that have a zonal flow, bringing in weak systems without a lot of cold air? That’s been our entire ski season.

But the big overarching models are seeing a collapse of that stable polar vortex, and that results in the wavy jet stream you see on the right. Typically this leads to the more “normal” pattern we are used to with alternating periods of troughs and ridges. At the moment, it looks like we get a couple of weeks of ‘troughiness” before returning to a ridge and more fair weather pattern down the road.