Inconsistent

If I had to choose one word to sum up the season so far it would be “inconsistent.” At no time during this season have we seen any particular weather pattern develop that kept ski conditions consistent for more than just a few days at a time. Just taking this holiday weekend as an example:

Saturday: A pretty decent powder day in the morning, followed by rapid warming in the afternoon that created heavy mank.
Sunday: We woke up to an icy firm surface that was quickly covered by some new snow, which then turned to rain by mid morning
Monday: We woke up to a completely mixed mountain, where some exposures offered winter snow and wind buff and others offered coral reef conditions and ice

That’s the quick thought for today, very inconsistent mountain conditions. We skied conditions that were so bad today that all you could do was laugh. Anything that was on the lower part of the mountain that saw drizzly rain yesterday, or the parts of the mountain that saw a lot of sun in the afternoon clearing yesterday were really unpleasant if they weren’t groomed overnight. I mentioned “coral reef” above, but we also encountered chicken beaks and frozen vegetables. Each of those conditions are slightly different, but all will test your abilities as a skier.

Patty making the rough morning surface on Bobby’s look easy

We also skied some terrain that was very good today. Terrain on the upper mountain that doesn’t get too much sun scored well. The Palisades, Pygmy Forest, Tower 19, the D Chutes and North Peril all remained mostly soft winter snow. The problem is that eventually, you needed a crowded groomer to get you back to Summit. The top half of High Traverse, also reported good. The problem is that you cannot ski just the top half. You also needed to complete the crispier lower sections to get back to Sherwood. Inconsistent is the word of the day.

High thin cloud cover led to flat light conditions for much of the morning

Grooming was somewhat minimalistic overnight. In some cases things weren’t quite as wide as they might usually be. Other things just did not get done. We noted Bobby’s, D8 and Terry’s Return as things that did not get the treatment last night. Fortunately D8 and Terry’s were still pretty soft. Bobby’s…not so much. It’s not that I want or need every part of the mountain groomed, it’s just an odd choice on a holiday weekend where there’s a lower quotient of skill level on the mountain.

The parking lots did not fill today, so that was a bonus. When we pulled out mid-day, Deer Park was about half full and Hidden Valley was not used. So it could have been more crowded, but because of the poor conditions of much of the off piste terrain, the groomed slopes still felt very busy today.

Here’s a better view of the controlled slide below the Summit terminal from the last storm. A couple of old times suggested that it rarely goes this big here.

An Inconsistent Forecast

The total snow forecast through Wednesday, about 1-3 inches

Warm then snow then warm in the inconsistent short term forecast. Tomorrow is looking mostly sunny with warming temperatures. That should unlock some of the frozen off piste on the lower mountain tomorrow. That’s a good thing, at least for tomorrow. For Wednesday, that all refreezes again and we get another weak system passing to our north. Right now it looks like a dust on crust situation, with only 1-3 inches in the latest models. Perhaps it will over perform like yesterdays little surprise. Then the 6 to 10 day forecast looks like it could be dry and warmer.

These charts represent the percent chance of drier or warmer weather. Frequently they are misinterpreted as showing the degree of dryness or warmth. So while there is a 80-90% chance of being warmer than average, it may be only 1-2° warmer.

Looking at the longer range, the 8-14 day trend still looks dry and warm, but that is something you can’t bank on yet. Nothing about this winter has been normal when it comes to weather patterns. We are almost to meteorological spring and we still have not seen a typical Pacific trough that brings more typical Gulf of Alaska storms. But the models have not given up yet. Over the last two days, the models have been suggesting a strongly negative PNA index around the beginning of March. If that happened, it would be some sort of March Miracle, just because we have not seen a Pacific trough this winter.

Again, nothing has been consistent and the models have tried to effectuate a Pacific trough time and time again this winter. Why do they do that? Well that’s what happens nearly every winter in the Pacific Ocean. Is no troughs in the Pacific Ocean the “new normal?” Probably not, as the winters of ’14-’15, ’91-’92 and ’76-’77 probably showed a similar lack of activity in the Pacific. Sadly, that data may have already been erased.

It seemed like a lot of people were leaving town today as not every one has a “ski week”. Hopefully it’s slightly less busy.

See you out there tomorrow.