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We Haven’t Seen A Forecast Combo Like This In A Long Time

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We really can’t complain about the short term weather forecast. Although temperatures rebounded around Tahoe today and recent snows are melting, the models are putting together a nice storm for next weekend. As of today, the storm is 5 days out on the GFS model, which is very much out of the fantasy range and into the reality range. The GFS is showing rain and snow starting around Friday, building strength through the weekend and not really tapering off until Tuesday.

Here’s the statement in today’s Reno NOAA Weather Discussion:

WHILE TODAY`S 12Z MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT QPF WISE, IT`S STILL 5.5 DAYS AHEAD SO TALKING SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS RIGHT NOW IS UNWISE. WITH THAT SAID, THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF A STORM THAT COULD PUT DOWN A FOOT OR SO OF SNOW ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WITH A QUICK DROPOFF OF RAIN/SNOW EASTWARD GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

Traditionally Boreal would be opening by next weekend (or sooner). We’ll have to see how the warmer temperatures this week combined with the incoming storm affect that plan. The models today show this storm taking a much more southerly track than the previous systems, so Mammoth should also get a very good dose of snow to bolster their efforts to open for Veterans’ Day. As always, we’ll believe it when we ski it.

The longer range also still holds promise. All of the recently released models have been painting November wetter. Although there is no promise that the RRR might not return at some point this season, the trough off the coast is holding very nicely, which is a refreshing change from the last 24 months. Winter is still coming…

A deep low still sits in the Gulf of Alaska, far different than the previous 24 months. Graphic from WeatherWest.com
A deep low still sits in the Gulf of Alaska, far different than the previous 24 months. Graphic from WeatherWest.com

 

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