Alrighty Then Let’s Look At The Next Storm

Apparently there were no miracles in part 2 of this week’s storm, as few people reported anything yesterday. A quick review of TGR and EpicSki indicates that the south shore resorts were the winners this time. It happens. Sitting here in Denver, where it has snowed non-stop since my arrival, we know the skiing must be fantastic at Colorado resorts right now. My skis and boots are 900 miles away in a locker at Alpine Meadows.

Things are looking up though. The pattern change we’re looking for did not get here quite yet. We did get the hose last week as far as snow totals go. However, given the serious nature of drought in California & Nevada, a good soaking rain is a good thing.

The pattern change is looking a bit more progressive in the next week. It looks like the weakened ridge will be moving a bit more to the west, allowing a more significant series of slightly colder storms to roll into Tahoe. The atmospheric river would be a little less direct than the last storm. But the flow looks pretty zonal, which means storms are coming from across the Pacific instead of Alaska. Hopefully we can get the right balance of a lot of moisture, with a snow level at or below lake level for the next round.

There’a a small disturbance passing along the coast that may bring a few showers for this Monday. The GFS brings a much nicer storm right at Tahoe around Monday the 10th, with at least two more waves following the first. The first big one is 9 days out on the model, which is better than the 16 day “fantasy range” but not quite into the 7 day “looking really possible” range.

Here’s the latest run that shows the potential for the 10th:

Please be careful out there this weekend! There’s plenty of under snow obstacles out there to wreck your season.