The Rain Is Here…And We Should Wake Up To Snow Tomorrow

This would be a good time to point out that this storm is arriving pretty much as expected. It’s been a tough year for forecasters because the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge has been killing off storms for a long time. But this storm first appeared in the models back around 2 weeks ago and many bloggers and forecasters nailed it. Sure it arrived a day early, but that’s likely a good thing.

No changes have been made to the forecast today, with one exception. The cold air is expected to hit a little sooner than we thought. That means we should be able to get to the top of the forecast range for snow. We’ve had nearly an inch of rain near the crest so far today, which leaves about 2 more inches of water in the storm. This should be enough to drop around 2 feet of snow at the crest and 12-18 inches of snow at the 7000 foot level.

Here’s the Winter Storm Warning released this afternoon:

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY.

* TIMING: MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
  CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA THIS EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO
  SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: NEAR TWO FEET ABOVE 8000 FEET...ONE FOOT OR
  MORE ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND AROUND 5 INCHES AT LAKE TAHOE LEVEL.

* SNOW LEVELS: 8000 TO 9000 FEET TODAY...DROPPING TO 7000 FEET
  AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND TO LAKE TAHOE LEVEL BY
  DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
  GUSTS ON THE SIERRA RIDGES TO 90 MPH.

The update to the warning stage means that there is now a good deal of certainty in the forecast. NOAA also released a revised video briefing today, which remains mostly unchanged from yesterday. Most of it’s assumptions were now labelled “high confidence”, with the exception being the amount of snow that falls at lake level (6200′). With the snow level expected to drop to 6000 by sunrise, we expect there will be significant amount of snow at the lake from this storm.

What to expect at Alpine Meadows for skiing & riding in the next few days? 

• Thursday is going to be a tough call. It’s already snowing at the Summit based on 5 pm temperatures of 34°. But the base level was still 39°. The remote sensors show that snowpack is diminishing, from 13 inches to 11 inches at the base. The webcam also showed brown streaks this afternoon. It’s going to take some inches of snow just to get back to where we were. You may have also noticed ridge gusts to 90mph in the WSW above. They are currently 55-70mph. It would be reasonable to assume that Summit will remain closed tomorrow due to wind hold, wind loading of new snow and avalanche danger.

• Friday is certainly going to be mayhem at every resort in Tahoe. We expect no different at Alpine Meadows. Reasonable assumptions would be that everything that has been open will be open with far better coverage. There will definitely be snowsnakes and sharks still out there. Expect that Yellow and Alpine Bowl could run again, and that Subway could be added in to the beginner mix. Scott and Sherwood are unlikely candidates unless we get closer to 3 feet of snow or more.

• Saturday will likely be the busiest day of the season…we hope they get plenty of terrain open at Squaw Valley by Saturday!

That said, Mark is heading to Denver for SIA tomorrow through Sunday, so reporting is going to be more limited this weekend. We know Andy has been waiting for a powder day! But we would love to have some guest reports as well. Send us your report and a photo or two and we’ll share the excitement for a bit ‘o winter.