A Tricky Forecast Leaves Us Wondering

There’s not much change as to how things are skiing and riding at Alpine Meadows today. Take Andy’s comprehensive report on mountain conditions yesterday, then imagine it just a bit narrower and with a little more pepper thrown in. By the weekend, we are realistically looking at one groomed path down the mountain. Alpine Bowl to Rock Garden to Dancefloor will be it for those that are looking for the least sporty way down the mountain. TLC will likely make it to the weekend too, but the main connections to get there from the rest of the mountain may be gone by then.

The party line for closing day at Alpine Meadows still appears to be April 5th. Without the possibility of some new snow next week, that probably would not happen. But the forecast for next week is still a bit unsettled. We will look at those details later in this report.

What Is The History Of Closing Dates At Alpine Meadows?

I’ve been pulling together all of data for each season since the ski area opened in 1961 and doing some light statistical analysis. We are almost certainly looking at the shortest season in Alpine Meadows history. If Sunday, March 29th were the closing date, it would be the shortest season ever at 93 days. March 29th would be the earliest closing date ever, not including the COVID closure on March 14, 2020. Previously, the earliest closure ever was on April 1, 1968.

If mountain ops and Mother Nature worked together to hold this season together until Easter Sunday on April 5th, that would be a 100 day season. This assumes the mountain operates all through next week, which is not necessarily a given. Our previous shortest season ever was ’14-15, which was 115 days long. So yes, this really may be a very short season.

Correction caught by the robots: The ’76-77 season was actually the shortest at 114 days.

But Alpine Meadows Used To Always Stay Open Into June & July

Those of us that have been around this place for a long time may be cherry picking some of best memories for really late spring and summer skiing at Alpine Meadows. As it turns out, when you look at the data, it has not happened all that often. Here’s the comparison:

April Closures	12 seasons	18.8%
May Closures	43 seasons	67.2%
June Closures	6 seasons	9.4%
July Closures	3 seasons	4.7%

The hostile takeover of Alpine Meadows by the other place does skew things ever so slightly. There were a couple of years where Alpine Meadows could of been open into June or July, but the lack of competition between the mountains meant that only the other side remained open.

The Pattern Change Is Real…But Rain Versus Snow?

It really was to be expected. The pattern since last fall has been a month or so of warm weather, followed by a one week wet period on continuous repeat. This pattern change is right on schedule and it looks like it may last for just about one week.

We could see a bit of wind tomorrow with slightly cooler temperatures, then ridging builds back in through Sunday. That will keep temperatures above average, leading to more snow melt. As of this time, it does not look like storm number one gets here until midday Monday and continues through Tuesday. There is not much cold air support with the first storm, so expect rain below 8k feet, which is where we need snow the most. As of today, the models show about an inch of rain out of this system, with very wet snow at the top of the mountain.

The second system, as of now, moves in sometime Wednesday. Theoretically this system has more cold air support and some lower snow. If I cherry picked the perfect point in the model it showed 23 inches possible. That said, it’s a very narrow band of those higher amounts. Moving my cursor just a bit showed points with 7-9 inches.

So this whole setup is somewhat of a crapshoot. It might make a difference or it might not. Certainly having an inch of rain before we get snow will not help the situation. Then getting a bunch of new snow generally turns on the floodgates as people get powder fever. Putting a bunch of new snow over terrain that currently has thousands of obstacles could be a recipe for disaster. You really cannot trust people under the influence of powder fever to play it safe.

One possible scenario would be for the mountain to close midweek, allowing mountain ops teams a chance to make the best of the new snow to make things safe for a final weekend. That likely would mean grooming what can be groomed and then putting up all sorts of red lollipops in an effort to keep people out of trouble. Is that even possible?

If I were a betting man, this is the outcome I see as most likely: Close on the 29th with a reopening possible the following weekend, weather and conditions permitting.

Once these two systems pass, it looks like we return to our “new normal” dry pattern. The hope for a Miracle March never came to fruition. I don’t see an Awesome April in our future either.

A Look At The Other Side Of The Mountain

Yesterday we were talking about Sherwood and wondering what it looks like over there, as this is the time of the year where normally we would be hot lapping sweet corn in Chute Zero. Evidently people were listening as two different people offered me pictures of Sherwood in the last 24 hours.

Yikes! It’s been a dry year at Alpine Meadows. See you out there tomorrow because skiing is fun.