Time Traveling

We have been telling you for the last couple of weeks that we had made a sudden time jump from March conditions to May conditions. We have made yet another time jump this week and it’s looking a lot more like June or July on the mountain. If you have ever done summer skiing, say at Mount Hood, or the rare Fourth of July days at Alpine Meadows, you know exactly what I mean. Looking ahead toward April, we might be transported right back to some winter conditions.

Let’s give a huge shoutout to the mountain operations team at Alpine Meadows for making miracles happen. Wherever they can, they have been moving snow around to keep as much of the mountain open as possible. Two days ago, it looked like we were going to lose access to the Hotter Wheels lift, with things looking quite burnt out from the Tiegel Flats all of the way down to the lift corral. This morning, that zone was sporting a new coat of white snow.

It was “major project” night on the mountain. The Big Carpet zone was sacrificed to allow the remaining snow to be farmed and moved to fill in the corral at TLC. Additional farming of snow was done just below Tiegel Chutes between towers 5 and 6 to fill in the thin spots on Tiegel Flats. At the top of the lift, the upper ramp had turned into a steep intermediate run due to a lack of snow. Teams pushed more snow up to that area to mellow out that ramp, making it much more approachable for lower level skiers and riders.

Also the remains of the Snow Golf tee boxes and greens needed to be removed. If you noticed a little less grooming in other areas of the mountain, hopefully you now understand. With cooler temperatures today and fewer special projects, hopefully things will be just a bit better buffed out tomorrow.

The Tower 19 and Sunspot zones were skiing great this morning, as was Wolverine Bowl. I imagine the runout road from Wolverine might be a project for tonight. Werner’s and Charity are beginning to be a real challenge to the grooming crew. We’ll see how long they can hold on there.

Yup, summer conditions are what we are facing this week. If there were no changes to the forecast, well placed sources say that the 29th could be the last day for Alpine Meadows operations…maybe a day or two longer. But the models are looking quite a bit more progressive since my last report and winter could be making a return, at least for a bit. The question is whether it will be an April Fools joke, or something that could make a difference.

We’re Almost Within The 10 Day Window of Believability

There’s been a lot of chatter about snow returning to the Sierra, and I have been cautioning to not count those chickens just yet. But within 10 days, you start thinking that it is actually possible.

Scenario One – Brought To You By The GFS Ensemble Forecast

Here’s the 240 hour GIF of pressure anomalies over the next ten days. We’re looking for the ridge to disappear and be replaced by a strong low. The first part happens, but the low is not all that strong.

The resultant total snowfall forecast for the GEFS through April 3rd looks like this:

Those well placed sources told me today that one foot of new snow would likely not be enough to make a difference to extending our season a bit.

Scenario Two – Brought To You By The GFS Operational Run Forecast

By contrast, the most recent operational run of the GFS pressure anomalies shows the ridge being replaced by a deep low with cold air support:

The resultant total snowfall from that scenario through April 3rd looks like this:

Those well placed sources said today that 2 feet of new snow could buy us another week. Then we would have to see what happens after that.

This is one of my frequent reminders that the ensemble runs are far more reliable in the longer range of forecasting. Consider that operational run of the GFS a “pretty possibility”. Let’s see if it’s still there as we get closer.

I skied until just before noon today, then opted for the “two sport” option. We rode bikes from Truckee, out the Martis Valley trail, and today it was snow free all of the way up to the Northstar Village. That should not be possible in March!! Then again, we also rode it several times last December after it was just completed.

A Fatal Airplane Crash Near Alpine Meadows

Yesterday, a solo pilot crashed their Beechcraft airplane near the 5 Lakes Trail around 5:30pm. The pilot did not survive. Fortunately the crash did not occur within Alpine Meadows or Palisades Tahoe ski areas. The identity of the pilot has not yet been released, but our thoughts are that there as there is a good probability it is someone local. The Five Lakes Trail and the surrounding area is closed while the crash site is investigated and cleared.

Skiing is fun. See you out there.