Unprecedented

It is truly unbelievable how quickly we are losing snow in the Sierra Nevada. One week ago the remote sensor at the base of Roundhouse estimated 32 inches of snow. This afternoon it shows 18.4 inches. That’s a 42% loss of snowpack, the result of a long string of 60+ degree days on the mountain.

The mountain is showing the loss of snow too. Ungroomed terrain below mid mountain now has so many rocks, even I won’t ski it. The upper mountain also has its share of troubles. I hit more rocks today off of Summit than I have since July 4, 2023.

All of that said, it’s very good spring skiing, with some qualifiers. The snow is thick and heavy. If you’re a strong parallel skier on appropriate skis, you’ll be fine. Having the ability to do the splits or ski on one foot will help you avoid obstacles. I stayed out until almost 2 pm today, and it was only that last run on Gunners Knob that felt like Elmer’s Glue that told me it was time to stop.

If you’re doing the power wedge or a stem christie on rental gear, chances are you are going to struggle due to the heavy snow and often uneven surface. Kids that are on teams that are use to challenging conditions will be fine. Kids that are struggling to learn the basics may not do well. Usually, spring skiing is a great time for picking up the sport. Unfortunately, we are beyond spring skiing. It looks and feels a lot more like June or July out here now.

Weather, Influencers & Closing Dates

Looking at the week ahead, we will be about 10 degrees below where we were last week. But we will still be 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. We are still going to see drastic impacts on the snowpack, and there’s not many options left for farming snow.

The influencers, marketing departments and other people with an agenda have been teasing the idea of a winter storm at the end of the month. It makes for a pretty Insta post to show yet another powder picture from February 17th and claim “Winter Is returning!” Lets take a look at the models and see what they say:

These are three different models showing total snowfall as far out as they go. These are the operational models, which are based on a singular set of inputs and they are generally trash more than 5 days out. Any snow in the models is currently 10-16 days out. Now let’s look at the ensemble model:

The GFS ensembles are built by repeatedly running the model with slightly different inputs, including comparison with other models. It’s far more accurate that the operational models. It’s what I use 90% of the time here. I always caution that anything more than 10 days out is Fantasyland, which is where the 5-6 inches of snow above would fall.

The other reality is that once you compress that snow with a machine, it would add maybe an inch to the snowpack. It is not going to make much of a difference. Back in March of 1982, there was more like 11 feet of snow in a week, and yes that would make a difference. We are not there.

So shame on the influencers, marketers and clout seekers that are posting about winter returning. Yes, I hope it does rain a lot more this spring, or even snow some. Otherwise, we are looking at one hell of a fire season. Still this ski season is about forked. Some of those same influencers are also posting closing dates for ski areas in Tahoe. They are posting dates they picked up with a ChatGPT prompt, which is simply giving dates that happened last season, or mentioned by some marketing department during the big February storms. Most of those dates are still showing late April closures for just about every Tahoe mountain.

More mountains are throwing in the towel this weekend. It’s extremely unlikely that anybody other than Mount Rose, Kirkwood or Palisades will last until late April. The thing is, everyone is playing their hand close to their chest. Nobody wants to be the first big mountain to announce an early closing. Once someone does, other mountains will likely follow.

For Alpine Meadows, the target date still seems to be Easter weekend. Some departments think thats a real stretch, thinking the 29th is more likely given the rapid melt. Then there’s the departments that really want to make the 12th, and I would cheer that on. It would likely look a lot like July 4th, 2023….a lot of mud. Bring it on.

A Music Miss

Joy & Madness played the Alpine Meadows Sun Deck this afternoon. They are such a fun band! But today was a miss, as they were scheduled at the normal 2 to 5 pm. At 2:35 they were still prepping sound. I had about enough sun for the day by that time and bailed. Also I like to get my reports done sometime close to 4. Over the years, many people are in agreement that these spring bands should play earlier, like 1 pm.

Tomorrow, Boot Juice will play at Alpine Meadows. There wasn’t a big announcement on this due to a proximity clause. They played a show at the Crystal Bay Club last night, and had a free show at Alpine Meadows been advertised, that would cut into sales of tickets at Crystal Bay. Those clauses are good for bands and promoters. Boot Juice is a heckuva lot of fun. I will give the heads up that the schedule says they play from 3 to 6 tomorrow.

Not even Lot 3 filled today, but the Firehose was blasting people this way too….tomorrow will be much more busy due to Snow Golf.

See you out there….