A Slow Transition Back To Winter

We’ve been slowly transitioning from a semi-permanent pseudo-spring pattern back to winter. It’s taking some adjustment. In my last post, I mentioned a weak little low passing to our south on Friday. But no one really saw the possibility of light rain showers yesterday in a somewhat monsoon like flow. Combine that rain with some cold over night temperatures and things were pretty firm this morning.

Most of the cold was at the bottom of the mountain due to an inversion. Driving into the parking lot this morning, you could see the lake fog spilling over the top of Weasel Pass. On our first ride up Summit, you could feel the temperature warming as you neared the top. The first pleasant surprise of the day was that the grooming report was accurate and Sunspot was groomed overnight. It offered pleasant turns that were only slightly less chaotic than the busy Alpine Bowl.

The unpleasant surprise was the firm conditions from Rock Garden down. The off piste snow had glazed over and frozen solid. The groomed runs were wall to wall cookies right out of the gate. It wouldn’t surprise you that I was looking for the first sign of softening to head to Sherwood, mildly concerned about the mostly cloudy skies. Still, the test runs suggested it was time around 10 and we headed over.

The Sherwood Run groomer is barely holding on, with more chocolate chips and mud streaks every day. Still we did the mandatory run down the main groomer to assess conditions. The main run has slipped from “do-able” to “you can do it if you’re really careful.” Most people today seemed to stick to that one run today, not knowing any better. But some amazing cat operator left some cool surprises for us this morning. Robin Hood was groomed, I believe for the first time this year. Also groomed was something we dubbed “Lower Robin Hood”. Where Robin Hood meets the Sherwood Run, the cat had continued across the other side to the far right edge of Powerline, leaving a winding groomed run down toward the Ice Bar. This meant that you could ski an entirely different groomed run almost to the bottom.

Later we also noted that the two runs leading to Sherwood Face and Sherwood Left Face were also groomed. It was quite a bonanza. I did take a lap on Chute Zero, which is still good and still barely goes. The intermittent flat light was difficult with the growing moguls.

Word on the street is that Sunday is the last day for Sherwood. Hopefully this is just a temporary thing. As it gets colder, it won’t be good skiing. With just a little bit of new snow, it will be hazardous with so many lightly buried rocks. If the current forecast pans out, hopefully we will get Sherwood back. Honestly I would not be surprised if we see some holds at Scott and Lakeview after the weekend.

More Cowbell

I did drag my self away from Sherwood to claim a cowbell and parade down to The Chalet for the Febtober Fest just before noon. It was a fun distraction for a bit and well attended. We hung around and had a Trumer Pilsner and some pretzel bites. The DJ playlist was decidedly not “Oktoberfest Tunes” and it seems like people understood that costume contest meant. they were supposed to dress like the Olympic athletes opening ceremony parade. Thoughts of additional corn skiing called to me.

It was a a busy day at Alpine Meadows. Besides the Chalet Party, there were a lot of race teams and race parents there for a U12 slalom race on Kangaroo. The event had been scheduled for Lakeview, but thin conditions on Lakeview necessitated the change to the smaller location. On top of that, there was the general increase of traffic due to next weekends blackout of Base Ikon passes due to Presidents Weekend. The upper lots filled today, as well as half of Deer Park. Someone also left the hose turned on at the B2B.

Tomorrow is likely the last day of the pseudo spring weather and the decreased interest in skiing we have seen the last few weeks. The hype is starting to build about the return of winter to Tahoe and much of the western US.

The Forecast Still Holds

It’s nice when the weather forecast holds true to what I have suggested here. Several of my friends were doubting it after not hearing mainstream forecasters seeing the same. So starting with the easy pieces, we have not seen a snow forecast like this in a month, and this is just the beginning:

Looking at the storms as we see it now:

Storm #1 – Monday night into Wednesday night: The latest model run of the GFS ensembles shows about 13 inches of snowfall, with snow levels around 5-6k for most of the storm. Looking at all of the models, a range of 10-18 inches is reasonable. This will be a nice refresh of north facing terrain. It also comes in at a pace where avalanche problems may not multiply exponentially. Hopefully we can get some decent bonding between the old and the new before a bigger storm rolls in.

Storm #2 – Friday night into Monday night: Yeah that is the entirety of the Presidents weekend, which is not ideal for travel. This is a bigger storm, with higher winds expected. That will increase travel difficulties and potentially lead to wind holds and increased avalanche hazards. The models are showing an additional two feet or more of snow from this storm. This storm is now out of Fantasyland and into the realm of possibility.

If you follow the models out, there’s additional storms after these “storm door openers”. Some model runs are now showing 60-80 inches of new snow within the 16 day window. I would not describe that as any sort of February miracle. The 54 year average snowfall for the month of February at Alpine Meadows is 76.1 inches. It’s the sort of snowfall we need to rehabilitate Scott, Lakeview and Sherwood.

I am more interested in seeing how these storms bring snow to the Pacific Northwest, Utah and Colorado so that Palisades and Alpine Meadows are not doing the heavy lifting for Ikon pass holders in the western US.

Although the results looks like a foregone conclusion, the poll regarding new sticker options is still open:

The sample photos are on this post.

See you out there tomorrow.