UPDATED: Waiting And Hoping

The deluge of rain continues in northern California today. It’s definitely a mental challenge for those of us that would love to see a lot more snow and a lot less rain. I’ve been lucky that so far my only loss has been my outdoor Christmas lights, which seemed to have developed a rain related short, keeping things just a little less festive at home. Things could certainly be much worse, looking at the flooding in Humboldt County and the Redding area.

Looking at Alpine Meadows this morning, we are still seeing mostly rain at the base of the mountain. There’s been some brief bouts of snowfall, only to have the new snow washed away by warmer rain spells.

As we have explained countless times before this has everything to do with the position of the jet stream in an atmospheric river event. Imagine it somewhat like a loose firehose whipping around and you get the picture. The GIF below shows the flow of precipitable water in the atmosphere over the next five days as projected by the GEFS ensemble this morning:

You can notice that there’s a shift northward again before we see the cold air really start to move into the Sierra on Wednesday. So expect to see more rain for another 24 to 36 hours before the snow really gets going. Below is the current automated snow level forecast from Reno NOAA. You can see the levels don’t really drop until early on Christmas eve. The second graph shows a quick estimate of snowfall at Donner Pass during that time frame. Once it gets going, it adds up quickly.

The models have started backing off just a bit on the total expected snowfall in the Tahoe region. Much of the energy of the main system looks like it pushes into the southern Sierra, like we saw much of last season. Looking at the model trend GIF showing total snowfall over the next week you can see that the numbers tick down a bit from Looney Tunes crazy to numbers that seem more reasonable.

So what are the numbers specifically as of today? Here’s the combine Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watch as issued by the Reno office of NOAA:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, heavy wet snow. Additional
  snow accumulations between 2 to 10 inches above 8,000 feet.
  Ridgetop gusts as high as 100 mph.
  For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow. Snow accumulations between
  1 to 2 feet at lake level with 2 to 4 feet above 7,000 feet.
  Ridgetop gusts as high as 100 mph.

The Sacramento office of NOAA covers the west slope of the Sierra Nevada and they are a bit more enthusiastic about snowfall. Snowfall is generally significantly greater on the west slope of the Sierra as opposed to the Tahoe basin. They call for 3-6 feet above 6500 feet. Alpine Meadows sits right at the crest of the Sierra and typically gets somewhere between the two different forecasts. For those that are newer readers, the base area at Alpine Meadows is about 6850 feet.

Looking Farther Down The Road

So what happens after this week is the question. Right now it looks like we get a solid one, two punch of winter weather through Saturday morning, then high pressure builds in a bit as we head into next week. At this time, there is nothing big in the forecast during the rest of the 16 day forecast period. We get into a kind of zonal flow by week two that could offer some weaker storminess, but nothing huge. After a record slow start to the season striking a blow to the local economy, having a quieter week where people can get to Tahoe and enjoy the snow is probably a good thing. Here’s the GIF of pressure anomalies over the next 16 days from the GEFS ensemble:

The Latest Opening Date?

That’s an excellent question. Right now, Alpine Meadows is opening on the 27th of December (or maybe the 26th according to parking reservations). This is not the latest date that Alpine Meadows has opened. During the first public season at Alpine Meadows, the mountain opened on December 28, 1961. No, I was not there, as I was only about two months old. Tracking opening dates is fairly easy with the help of some Googlefu or AI back to about 2010, thanks to information on the internet. During the internet era, December 13th seems to be the latest opening date.

Looking back at the historical for snowfall at Alpine Meadows, the 1976-1977 season saw only 10 inches of snow in November and 12 inches of snowfall in December. There likely was not enough snow to open the mountain through December. I am not sure of the actual opening date that season though I am sure one of our oldest readers might remember. I remember that my awesome mother took us to Mount Bachelor that holiday to find snow, then the second week was spent at Ski Incline, due to their snow making capability. From what I have heard, Alpine Meadows started to install snowmaking after that disastrous season.

Tomorrow Is Super Tuesday Again

With no skiing at Alpine Meadows, there has not yet been a reason to make a parking reservation this season. The first Super Tuesday of the season was canceled last week. Tomorrow should be the day to make parking reservations December 26th through January 2nd. Whether Friday the 26th will still be there tomorrow at 12 pm is the question, as the currently stated opening date is the 27th.

UPDATE: No parking reservations for the 26th were available today. Word is that hopes for an earlier opening were washed away by heavy rains yesterday. The operations blog says just TLC to mid on Saturday and maybe Roundhouse. If this storm pans out the avalanche issue will be very real on the upper mountain. It’s going to take time te get terrain open.

There are some things to know if you haven’t been paying attention:

• You should double check your log-in to make sure you are ready to go. You need to have a valid credit card on file to make a reservation and I found mine had expired.
• There is a new option for “free” carpool reservations for four or more people in a car. I would assume this entitles you to Lot 1 or 2 at Alpine Meadows. I think I saw that the driver will get a $20 voucher for food, which is great if you have a large family already.
• Word on the street is that there are plans to be more aggressive in penalizing those that make a reservation and fail to use it. We shall see. I don’t want to test that myself.

My fingers are crossed that this storm pans out as the Winter Storm Watch advises. I am ready to go skiing again after not skiing since last Monday at Rose. Right now it’s time to bundle up in rain gear and head out into the rain to troubleshoot those Christmas lights…