Well the official announcement came out this afternoon, and it is not a shocker. Palisades Tahoe/Alpine Meadows has now postponed their opening date beyond November 26th. A revised date has not been announced. I was just sitting down to report that employees had been told last week there was a 50/50 chance of opening this upcoming Wednesday when I read the new Palisades Tahoe blog posted at 1:00pm today.

It’s the same story that we have been reporting the last week or so. The natural storms have brought a lot of rain but not much snow. We are way ahead of seasonal averages for rain, but way behind seasonal averages for snow. This was the same that we saw last season, just on a grander scale. The difference was that we did get a couple of big base builder storms to get the season going last November.

One of the consequences of all of that rainfall is that everything in the Sierra is really wet and somewhat muddy with saturated soils. That leads to a lot of evaporative moisture in the atmosphere, which leads to higher relative humidities. We see that as fog when the temperatures drop. So although we have had some good freezing temperatures, the high humidity is not allowing for productive snow making. Ideally we want a good dry cold for snowmaking. As we head into the upcoming week, we have marginal temperatures for making snow, and daytime highs into the mid 40’s, which quickly melts that newly blown snow. It’s a no win situation for most of the Tahoe resorts.

The key ingredient that has been the saving factor so far is elevation. The ski areas that have terrain above 8500 feet are the only ones that have snow. Those areas are Mammoth and Mount Rose.They have had natural snow out of the storms and have had better success making snow with colder temperatures and less fog. Consequently, Mammoth Mountain opened on the 20th and continues to expand operations. Mount Rose opened on the 21st and is very slowly expanding operations.

Heavenly Valley will also open tomorrow, November 24th. My original thoughts were that they would only be offering the terrain at the top of the mountain. What has been announced is the Tram, Gunbarrel, Patsy’s and Powderbowl. That tracks, with the exception of Gunbarrel. I am guessing that just means riding up the chairlift to access Patsy’s and Powderbowl. Still it does present a third option for those wanting to slide on snow.

Mammoth Mountain Is Still The Best Option

If you have an itch to ski or ride, Mammoth Mountain is still your best bet. First off it’s on the Ikon Pass, so unless you are an employee or dependent with just a Palisades Tahoe Pass, you are good to go. Mammoth ran 11 lifts today: Chairs 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11 ,12 ,13, 14, 23 plus the gondola. About half of those chairs served ungroomed terrain with all natural snow, which some friends equate with “real skiing and riding”.

Mammoth is a relatively short drive from the Reno/Tahoe area. There are some cheaper places to stay in Mammoth and a few places to eat that mere mortals can afford. There’s also some places for dispersed camping for those that have access to an RV. In short, it’s a really fun mountain that offers the most terrain in the entire west. You should consider it if you truly have the itch to get your winter started.

Mount Rose: A Mixed Review

Fortunately, Mount Rose is a closer offering than committing to a Mammoth trip. It’s not a bad way to spend a day without spending an arm and a leg. Day tickets are relatively cheap compared to the big Tahoe ski areas and there are a number of deals out there. Because I did commit to their Off Peak pass this fall, I’ve been there the past three days and will continue to go there in the coming week without having the Alpine Meadows option.

Opening day at Mount Rose was challenging last Friday. The entire mountain was in the clouds and fog. The Lakeview lift opened almost 50 minutes late as lift maintenance crews scrambled to remove rime and patrol hurried to improve boundary and hazard markings. Visibility was somewhere around 25 feet. By the time the lift opened, the line was nearly back to the main lodge. Typically I can do a run from Lakeview Chair through KC Bowl in 3 to 4 minutes. That first run took 17 minutes with constant stops to reassess terrain and look for an opening amongst hundreds of people on the slope. Fortunately Mount Rose gave out day glo orange tank tops to the first 100 or so skiers! I was “one and done” that day, as were most people. Visibility didn’t really improve until about 2:30 that day.

Saturday was a completely different story. It was a bluebird day with far fewer people. By midday, patrol opened four additional off piste runs: Ramseys, Mine Shaft, Jetta and Aida’s. Those runs were powder runs yesterday, turning into soft moguls today. While there was some DG to avoid, it’s far more friendly to your bases than the metamorphic and volcanic rocks at Alpine Meadows.

Things were considerably more busy today as the word got out that skiing was actually quite good. I called it after 6 laps this morning when the line was getting too long. Hopefully, things will be a bit more chill tomorrow, being a Monday. There’s still a bit more terrain that Rose is getting ready to open. Also, there’s a lot of people that will want to check out Heavenly’s offering.

The math says I need about 6 days of skiing at Mount Rose to amortize the cost of my Off Peak pass. I will be there by Wednesday. That makes my accountant happier. With limited terrain and some reasonably warm afternoons, every day will be a dual sport day with some skiing in the morning and bike riding in the afternoon. The dirts trails are still quite wet, so it’s townie rides for now.

I am very thankful that I can put food on the table and enjoy the easy life as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Do We Really Want To Look At The Weather?

Yes, we need to take an actual look at the weather. Not a day goes by that someone has not asked about that big storm that is supposed to happen by next week. It’s painful to watch potential storms weakened or pushed farther into the future.

As far as natural storms that may bring big snowfall totals, it is looking bleak over the last several runs of the GEFS ensemble run for total snowfall. Here’s the latest complete run:

Yes, that shows only 1-2 inches over the next 10 days. Ooooff! That is better than when I ran it this morning and that run showed zero inches over the next 16 days. The models do change over time and get more accurate as we get closer. The operative words you hear from forecasters is “looking for a pattern change”.

Will we at least get some cold weather? That answer does look a bit better. Here’s a GIF showing the pressure anomaly over the next 16 days. Storms are associated with low pressure, which is blue-purple.

So there’s a big blob of a low pressure system out there around the 30th, but it comes directly form the north. That won’t bring much natural snow, but will will bring a solid blast of arctic air. So snow making conditions will get much better, but we are about a week out from that. That’s not a certainty.

Yeah…not much to look at. Winter playtime in the mountains will still be a very limited thing in the week ahead. Hopefully we will get there soon. Until then….remove your snow tires, take the gas out of your snow blower and bring the lawn furniture back out.

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