There’s a phrase that skiers and riders hate to hear at this time of year. It’s that phrase that means you cannot count on an opening date. That phrase is “weather and conditions permitting.” Right now, the weather and conditions are stymying efforts for mountains in the Sierra to get their seasons into gear. In our last post, we mentioned that this week’s storm had a “boom or bust” potential. Let’s break that down first now that the storm has passed. Yeah, clickbait headline just because I am in a mood.

• In terms of rainfall, we saw right about 1.5 inches of rainfall in the Tahoe region. The base sensor at the bottom of Roundhouse called it 1.44 inches. At this time of year, rainfall is important. It keeps the fire danger in check for a bit and keeps local mountain bike trails in prime condition. Call it a boom.
• In terms of snowfall, this system was a bust. The snow levels moved up and down several times throughout the storm. At the base area of Mount Rose, it looks like there’s 4-6 inches of new snowfall. At Alpine Meadows, there was some snowfall down to about 7500 feet. This new snow will melt quickly and not really offer much in terms of starting a new base.
• The storm failed miserably in breaking down the strong ridge that has been keeping us dry and warm the last two weeks. The temperatures at the bottom of Roundhouse are 38° this morning. While you can make snow at that temperature, it’s not very productive. Temperatures will once again get warmer this week.

Here’s the webcam views at Alpine Meadows and Mount Rose this morning:

Just noting the lack of any snowmaking happening in these shots. The resorts are smart enough to know that any snowmaking that could be done this morning would likely be a wasted effort with rising temperatures in the coming days. It is what it is and if a lack of sliding on snow is your only problem, consider yourself blessed.

Things are not great for a strong start to the season. Along with the lack of snow, ski areas are also looking at a rather bleak economy. Prices for everything are up. International travel is down for various political reasons. Domestic travel is about to take a hit due to the current federal government shutdown. There a whole lot of people who are wondering how they are going to put food on the table next week. I think it’s fair to guess that a lot of those people are the ones that are still hoping resorts open soon so they can see a paycheck.

When Will They Open?

Way back in mid-September, I posted a series of countdown timers showing anticipated opening dates. So far one of them was correct. I did get in my first ski day of the season at De Uithof in the Netherlands. The next two countdowns don’t look very probable.

Mount Rose had hoped to open on November 8th, just two days away. That is definitely not happening. They have not committed to a new date. Here’s the disclaimer they posted:

Mammoth Mountain was shooting for a November 14th opening. Based on the current webcam shot, that is also looking very unlikely.

And that brings us around to the opening date of November 26th for Palisades and Alpine Meadows. This photo just popped up in my messages as I was typing that last sentence, from Jay (aka Will Sew For Bolts):

That puts a little thrill into my morning but it’s not enough to hang your hat on. Will we get enough snow or cold temperatures by that time? That stream of storms we were seeing in the forecast last week has now been delayed by yet another high pressure ridge. Below are GIFS of how things look over the next two weeks. The first is the GFS ensemble and the second is the Euro ensemble.

Both models show strong ridging over the next 5-6 days. The GFS brings in another system a bit sooner than the Euro model. That said, the Euro seems to have better accuracy this fall. Most of the good stuff seen in these runs is out past day 10…what we call Fantasyland. I would not book a vacation based on storm possibilities just yet.

Financially, this is not great for the ski areas, nor the local businesses that rely on ski season to keep the doors open. Without snow scenes and reports of traffic jams and closed roads on KCRA and various Bay Area stations, people are much less likely to book vacations for Thanksgiving or the Christmas holidays. That’s on top of people currently on furlough or that were entirely let go from federal jobs and federally funded jobs. A weak start to the season will affect us all, as it generally results in reduced operations the rest of the season and potentially earlier closing dates as ski areas look to avoid losses.

As much as I just want to go skiing, my plate is still pretty full this week. I am still working very hard to come up with a solution for my mother that keeps her in a safe place, but also happy, once she is released from skilled nursing. I am also doing battle with a local cadre of mice, that have made a home in our camper van when the rain started falling. Hopefully I will find time for a bike ride today.

❄️❄️ Think Snow!! ❄️❄️