Not An Ideal Weather Pattern

It’s cloudy and drizzly in Tahoe today with a weak weather system passing to our south. A stronger system is passing through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend, and we will just be brushed by the tail end, producing light rain and snow at higher elevations. These are not the storms we are looking for just yet, as we are still just past the middle of meteorological fall.

These storms are not quite as strong as what we saw earlier in the month. They will also be better at producing rain rather than snow. Here is the GFS Ensemble for total precipitation into Monday, showing the potential for not quite an inch of rain. This will be good for tamping down fire danger and keeping mountain bike trails damp.

Looking at the snow accumulation for that time and there is not much, and only at the highest elevations.

After that there’s some descriptions being thrown about that we don’t like: “death ridge”, “ridge of doom”, and “blocking high.” The GIF below extends out over the next 16 days, showing troughs versus ridging. The last week of October into early November is looking dry. Unfortunately there is pretty good model agreement on this.

Yeah, that looks nasty. We could see some record high temperatures that could interfere with snowmaking efforts. There are some positives. We don’t see a situation that will create offshore winds and increase fire danger yet. The weather for Halloween trick or treating looks nice. If nothing changes, some early openings may not happen as we would like.

I’m always cautioning here when we look at the weather that days 10-16 in these models are called “Fantasyland.” You just can’t count on that happening when you see storms out in Fantasyland. The same thoughts apply to this “death ridge” out in Fantasyland. We can hope the forecast changes. It happens.

Here’s the current state of hope at the ski areas. Mount Rose had a good dose of snow from the last system and will have better odds of seeing more snow this weekend due to their higher elevation. But they are losing the battle on Ponderosa, the wide flat run that returns to the base area. It’s been too warm and Ponderosa gets a lot of sun.

That said, they are looking better than Alpine Meadows. Here’s the Chalet cam, as that is the area that is most likely to open first:

So continue biking, golfing, late season camping, watching football or whatever it is that you do. Winter is not quite here yet, and the hopes for an early winter have somewhat faded. It’s going to be okay, as along as we can avoid fire dangers.

On a personal note, this is a good thing for me. I’ve been waiting for some parental catastrophe to happen for the last two years or so. My mother took a tumble down the stairs last week and fortunately avoided major injuries. But it does mean that she’s probably not going to be able to live independently any longer. That means we will be hustling to help her get into a safe new living situation, hopefully before we get into the depths of winter. I don’t need to be distracted by ski season over the next few weeks. Thanks for the positive thoughts many have already shared.

Still, I will be thinking snow….