Volatility

Yesterday was really quite fantastic as a ski day. You wouldn’t normally expect that from a storm that delivered only 2″ of new snow. But the wind machine redistributed that snow as it fell, leaving some areas to hit the jackpot. For the most part those areas were the north facing slopes and chutes. Since it was not my day to write a ski report, I felt no obligation to ever leave those fantastic places like the Palisades or High Yellow Gully. My hope today was to get a repeat of yesterday. There was only a 20% chance of snow this morning, which really meant an 80% chance of no snow.

But forecast volatility got in the way of those plans, and may continue to do so.

Even when we arrived at Alpine Meadows to cloudy skies and snow showers, the forecasters expected this would end by 11am. Such was not the case. Those showers hung over Alpine Meadows the whole day. You would think that snowing all day might lead to something, but looking at the remote sensors, a total of 0.02 inches of precipitation had fallen by 3 pm, which by most measures would translate to 0.2 inches of new snow following the standard 10:1 ratio for the Sierra Nevada. No, all that new snow did was mess with your visibility.

None of that awesome stuff we enjoyed yesterday was smooth. Most of it consisted of soft moguls, which were excellent yesterday with good lighting. But with the sun ranging from 0% brightness to sometimes 25% brightness behind the clouds, the lighting conditions were challenging. That meant it was one of those days where the mountain was not all that busy, but 98% of the people were skiing only the well manicure terrain on the groomed slopes. They felt pretty busy, and Fridays tend to just get busier and busier as people start their weekend early with some afternoon ski laps before checking into their AirBnB.

So yes the skiing and riding was fair to good today, all depending on your tolerance for poor visibility. Since I have now had 4 out of the last 7 days be in the “epic” category, I am a bit jaded. So people that have only skied this one day this week may have found it better, us regulars would more likely use the term “meh” or “mid”, depending on your generation. Some of my friends had significantly worse descriptions.

I begrudgingly took a lap on Sunday School and another over at Sherwood, feeling a sense of responsibility to writing an accurate report. That south facing terrain was poor on the groomed terrain and awful on the frozen chunder of ungroomed terrain. Not only did we not accumulate any new snow, we made zero progress in accelerating the development of spring corn today.

I Fear For Tomorrow

Tomorrow was originally supposed to be a sunny day. Now it is not. Volatility is the word of the day. Here’s the clip of the next 4 days:

There’s a 30% chance of snow and if today is any indication it will snow, and not enough to make any difference. Andy is smart, he won’t be here, choosing a non-ski weekend instead. If tomorrow ends up like today, I promise you that there will not be another pitiful ski report for Saturday. I’ve been looking for an open slot to write a ski review on the Moment Deathwish 104’s. If you see that review posted tomorrow, you’ll know it was another non-ideal ski day.

There are a couple of fun things happening tomorrow that could put a smile on your face:

• The Pain McShlonkey snowlerblade event is happening over the hill at Palisades Tahoe. The “Hot Dog Downhill” (because it’s no longer PC to call it a “Chinese Downhill”) happens at 8am, presumably on KT-22, as that’s about the only place spectators can see the race. Racers are already preregistered, so you can’t join the race now. But it is also International Snowblade Day so it’s a day to bust out those under 100cm shorties and join in with shenanigans on the slopes to honor Shane McConkey.

• Joy and Madness are scheduled to play on the Alpine Meadows Sun Deck tomorrow, typically around 2 pm. This funk and soul band has been an Alpine Meadows favorite for many years. It’s always a good party. My fingers are crossed for sunnier skies as outdoor performances are far better than indoors.

It’s Going To Be Spring, Right?

It should briefly be spring in the coming few days. Looking at things as they stand now, we should see sunny and warm weather for at least a few days this week. It won’t be ideal. The days and the nights will possibly be too warm to promote good corn development. It’s looking more like a mashed potatoes kind of week ahead as a strong ridge moves in for a couple of days. Daytime temperatures range into the upper 50’s and nights won’t provide a solid freeze.

By Wednesday night, a chance of rain and snow returns as zonal flow out the Pacific starts to form. That would bring the same sort of weak storms we are seeing now. That’s not an ideal forecast. As we get into the first week of April, the Pacific trough builds again, this time into the sort of placement that promotes AR events. Here’s the PNA Index forecast:

That’s the latest run go the GEFS for total snowfall through April 6th. Most of that snow would fall in April. That’s out in Fantasyland as far as forecasting goes. There’s not a way to get an handle on what snow levels could be this far out. But the word of the day is “volatility” and that goes hand in hand with predicting snow levels during ARish events.

I would be much more excited by another big snowfall event if it could be champagne powder again. That is not typical for April. I would also be more excited if these storms guaranteed that Alpine Meadows would remain open through Memorial Day. No such promises have been made.

Hopefully the forecast for snow tomorrow does not pan out. See you out there.