The Longest Weekend

It’s Day 3 of the longest weekend of the season and it was much better than I expected, being a Saturday during a series of powder dumps. I know, it’s not officially a three day weekend, but this one is shaping up to be a 5 day weekend, and easily the busiest of the season. We started off on Thursday with a deep powder day with the northern annex of Alpine Meadows on patrol hold. That resulted in record numbers traveling south on the shiny boxes. Yesterday was almost as busy with the “I don’t ski weekends” or “I could not get reservations” crowd. Today was Saturday and tomorrow is Sunday. Monday looks to be another powder day when the aforementioned “no weekends and no reservations” crowd will return. Odds are almost certain it will also be a snow day for local kids again.

Even though I do choose to go skiing every day of the season, I also have the opportunity to bail out whenever I feel the heebie jeebies about the number of people on the mountain. I salute all of the team at Alpine Meadows that has been putting in very long days during this storm series to keep the mountain open and safe for all of us. I counted 5 different sleds coming into Ski Patrol just this morning…yikes. We appreciate everyone that works at Alpine Meadows at every level.

I arrived 90 minutes before the lifts rolled this morning, because hanging out, eating a cinnamon roll and waxing skis is better than sitting in traffic at the West River Street and Highway 89 intersection. Pro tip: It’s always better to be there before CHP starts controlling traffic. You can use similar strategies to avoid the traffic on the mountain. Today, the pain points were at Scott and Lakeview. By avoiding the busiest parts of the mountain, it was quite possible to have a great day and really not stand in line any more than a typical weekday.

The quality of the powder was not excellent today, but then again I am jaded. It was heavy and/or wind affected. It was that surfy kind of snow that demands very wide skis or a snowboard combined with a good pitch and speed. People that used all three of those had a great time when Scott Chute opened this morning. After trying out a few areas of the mountain, I found I was having more fun ripping soft winter snow down some of the less busy groomed slopes.

Later in the day, the wind machine was doing a nice job of buffing out parts of the mountain that had snow loosened up by earlier traffic. I could have hot lapped Sunday School and various lines on Rolls and Knolls all day. Wind buff is likely to play a pretty big role tomorrow as well.

A Lot Of Snow Has Fallen And More Is On The Way

I’ve somewhat lost track of the total snowfall through this storm. Unfortunately, the Palisades Tahoe official website no longer values offering a real snowfall tracker page. So falling back on what Bryan Allegretto said this morning, Palisades Tahoe has reported 45 inches of snowfall out of this series. There are not any details about where that is measured. Looking at the data we can see, the base area sensor near Roundhouse was reporting a 66 inch snowpack before this series began. It’s now showing 96 inches of snowpack. There’s been more than 30 inches of snowfall, this is the pack measurement after settling. That’s a very significant gain over a three day period.

I have not taken a look at the upper mountain snow plot yet, but my guess is it’s probably approaching 200 inches now, if not more. I refuse to call this a “Miracle March” yet. Right now I will stick with “Impressive Gains March”. We have been very blessed to have somewhat continuous cloudy skies, keeping that new snow winter fresh.

The bigger question is will this new snow make any difference? People often suggest that all of this additional snow is a guarantee that our favorite mountain will be able to stay open until Memorial Day weekend, as it would get me pretty close to a 200 day season. But I am not sure that the bean counters in Denver see it that way. Over the last 14 years since Alpine Meadows became the backside of another resort, the history of staying open has not been perfect at all. It seems there’s always a reason to not let that happen, some of those reasons being real, and others being pure gaslighting. Sources I have talked to are conflicting as of yet. I will say that the best way for the powers that be to maximize income from a traditional long season would be to embrace it and celebrate it. That will make people more likely to plan more ski vacations.

Sunday Outlook: There is going to be a whole lotta wind tomorrow. As mentioned earlier this should result in some excellent wind buff conditions in some areas of the mountain. The problem is that we could also see a number of lifts go on wind hold tomorrow. Any day the B2B goes on wind hold is a positive thing, but tomorrow we could see issues with Summit, Scott and Lakeview. Yesterday, forecasters were talking about 100mph ridge winds as the system moves in midday. Light snowfall is expected by the end of the day, with heavier snowfall by 8pm or so. Theoretically, your drive home may be okay. It only takes one person to foul up Donner Summit though…

Monday Outlook: There is now a standard Winter Storm Warning in place for Sunday night into Monday night. The WSW mentions the potential for another 1-3 feet of snowfall, depending on the elevation. Here’s the model for the upper mountain at Alpine Meadows on the latest run of the GEFS:

The more volatile point forecast for Alpine Meadows is currently showing 24 to 38 inches on the current model run of the NAM. So two feet of additional snowfall is a reasonable expectation. Snow levels start around 6500′ and drop to about 4000′ by Monday. Typical storm winds are expected Monday, which will likely affect lifts again, hopefully the B2B. Also there’s a 100% chance of green stuff and leprechauns on Monday.

There’s a short lull on Tuesday and Wednesday before another system moves in Thursday. At this minute, it looks smaller. Take a look at the PNA Index. We have remained in a negative PNA, or Pacific trough, state for a week, resulting in a true winter pattern. Ridging returns late in the week. The midrange forecasts suggests another trough during the last week of March.

See you out there tomorrow. I’ll be the guy hunting for wind buff…