Another Winter Transition In Progress

We had one last little blast of spring conditions this morning before a series of weather systems make their way into the Sierra over the next 10 days. Due to fun with dentistry, I was only able to get out for a half dozen runs this morning. The clouds were looming over the Sierra crest and the winds were forceful this morning, enough for holds and closures on multiple lifts. That said, the early part of the day skiing was much better than expected due to exceptionally warm overnight temperatures.

Everyone I talked to expected the groomers to be frozen solid with a wide selection of cookie offerings. But then there were no cookies at all. Instead we had velvety groomed slush which carved up very nicely as long as you kept choosing new routes. Once everything got smeared around it was far less pleasant. Andy and I both experimented with some off piste terrain off of Roundhouse, finding nothing that was worth skiing – too soft and sticky, somewhat like skiing on a marshmallow. But this does not matter as things should be somewhat different tomorrow.

Update at 1:30: I see now that everything is on hold except Subway and the Big Carpet…in the rain. I am glad I got the good part of the day.

A Winter Weather advisory has been issued and it agrees with the models, which have pumped up the totals a bit for storm number one. I guess that’s good news as earlier today there was only a lake wind advisory.

Thursday night update: This thing is pretty weak so far! A lot of bluster but little snow yet…6 inches may be a stretch.

I would expect most of that total to fall overnight, with some additional snowfall during the day on Friday. Snow levels look to stay around 5000′ for most of that storm, so expect a heavier pow rather than super light and fluffy. Winds could still be a problem tomorrow.

Right now, Saturday is the only day of the coming week that looks like it may be sunny. Then things get interesting next week. The model trend GIF shows expected snowfall over the next 16 days:

Those last 6 runs have been consistently showing 40-60 inches of snowfall, mostly in the coming 10 days. So confidence is building in a solid winter pattern for a bit. None of those storms are huge, with most days bringing 6-8 inches of snow and then maybe twice that on Thursday. The GIF below breaks it into 24 hour snowfall totals.

That’s an impressive snowfall. I am always talking about the PNA index being a good indicator of what’s going on.

That is the most negative we have seen the PNA get this season. You would think we would have seen more storminess already this week but the Pacific trough is still a bit far off the coast. As the trough moves in we will see more productive storms and colder temperatures.

Once we get beyond day 12 in the forecast, ridging starts to build back in, giving us a return to spring weather again…maybe.

One More Month?

Multiple sources have continued to indicate that we have one more month of skiing and riding at Alpine Meadows. April 27th is the date that several people have mentioned as closing day on the backside of Palisades Tahoe. Nothing official has been released on that yet, other than the standard disclaimer “Nothing has been decided yet”, which means nothing.

As much as Alpine Meadows is probably the better mountain when it comes to spring skiing and riding, the money to be made is in the fake village next door. Competition between ski areas was a good thing. Ski area consolidation and private equity ownership is a bad thing for those of us that want to squeeze every last run out of the season.

See you out there tomorrow…