It’s been 27 days since the last snowfall at Alpine Meadows and somebody finally hit that big green RESET button. The snow and wind moved in this morning around 9:30, almost exactly as predicted by NOAA. We jumped on the Summit chair immediately, knowing it was likely to go on wind hold at any moment. It’s possible we may not get another ride on Summit for another 6 days or so with at least three storms in the forecast last the next 6 to 7 days.
The visibility in the morning went from just flat light to vertigo conditions on Summit pretty rapidly. It brought to mind just how excellent the grooming has been at Alpine Meadows this season, allowing us to just point skis down the hill and trusting it will be a smooth ride. Each lift ride got more and more rowdy and as we thought about a fourth Summit ride, it was on hold.
We did another 10 laps off of Roundhouse on one of the less traveled routes. It just kept getting better and better…until it did not. First we noticed the snow sticking to our googles. The we noticed our gloves were getting that heavy wet feeling. On our last lap the snow was getting all clumpy and there was chairlift grease spattered on our helmets. That “mixed precipitation” had arrived.
It May Get Worse Before It Gets Better
I already mentioned there are three storms currently in the pipeline. The question is exactly what they will bring. Today’s approach is going to be somewhat softer than dozens of models and GIFs. At this point, the pattern change is here but we can’t be exactly certain what it will bring. We tell you several times a season that the position of the jet stream has everything to do with the snow levels. Just a small shift can make a big change to snow versus rain. Here’s what it looks like as of now:
Storm #1 Today – Sunday
This is the tricky part of the forecast. There’s times where it could be clear snow all of the way to the top of the mountain. There may also be times where the snow level is mid-mountain. Some of the forecast discussions even mention the possibility of all snow down to the base levels.
The point forecast for Alpine Meadows says that Saturday snow levels will range from 7400 to 8500 feet. For those not in the know, the base at Alpine Meadows is 6900 feet and the top of Summit is about 8600 feet. Sunday looks like a 7800 foot snow level. These numbers will adjust every six hours with new model runs.
That is some soggy skiing and definitely not “Powder Day!!!” stuff. Still, I will be there for a least a minimum day each day.
Storm #2 Monday – Tuesday
The second storm will begin with the same mid-mountain snow levels, but colder air will eventually start filling in bring snow levels well below base level. So the skiing on Monday could still be a bit sloppy and gloppy before things really improve on Tuesday.
The consensus as of now it that this storm has the potential to bring three to four feet of snow to the ski areas by the time it is done. It also has the potential for strong winds that could impact lift operations. There will be huge round of work for mountain ops in rebuilding roads and ramps and for patrol resetting sleds, tower pads, signage and rope lines. It’s reasonable to expect some delays for all parts of the mountain to open.
Storm #3 Wednesday – Friday
Storm number three is quite a bit more theoretical being 5 days out in the forecast, right on the edge of “probably going to happen”. As of now, this storm will come in all cold, with no rain or mixed precipitation. It looks more like a typical Gulf of Alaska low without the benefit of an atmospheric river component.
The prognosticators at this time are suggesting one to three feet of snow with snow levels potentially down into Reno. It’s hard to remember that sort of storm as we actually have not seen a typical winter storm yet this ski season.
One thing that is clear is that there will be a mad dash for parking reservations and AirBnB rentals for the next weekend. A storm of tourists will arrive in Tahoe.
As skiers and riders, it would be our general nature to complain about the wet pattern for the weekend interfering with our enjoyment of new snow. This is especially true to those that pinpointed this one weekend for a ski vacation months ago. But having this storm series with a wetter component to start is important. We don’t want to see a few feet of cold and light fluffy snow falling on “old snow” or icy surfaces. That does not make for great skiing and it leads to extreme avalanche danger.
After 27 days of no snow the frequently travelled and groomed snow has become firm and icy. In areas where there isn’t much traffic, the snow has developed an extensive amount of surface hoar. Putting a bunch of new snow on that surface results in some very serious instability. In other areas of the mountain, where the snow has turned into rounded corn crystals, it would be like ball bearings under the snowpack.
Having a couple of days of warmer rain and mixed snow will reduce these problem layers by melting the hoar and consolidating the rounded crystals and slowly bond it to the new snow pack. It may be unpleasant over the next two days but it is exactly what Dr. Snow advised.
Be patient. Ski the extra wet conditions or don’t. It will get better. See you out there.
Obviously we have been having a lot of fun with AI images lately. We will never use AI to create images that serve to mislead you about current ski conditions.
Super fun morning until it got soggy. Appreciate the candid forecast.
I got 5 runs off Summit before it shut. Glad I hiked straight there instead of opting for the easier RH->Summit route. The last one from the top of Sunspot down through D8 was vertigo until I got next to the Peril trees.
Its been a combo of clear snow and white snow here at 6400′ all afternoon. Snowblower is ready for the next week.
I was looking for a reset button image for my socials. I may steal yours. Thanks.
Nice we also went straight to Summit but made probably 8x more turns than you going down 🙃
Bring it on.
I see next Wednesday being the first good day for us that aren’t diehards.
maybe Tue if they open most stuff & you like cold.