We saw some snowflakes fall from the sky today, honestly. But as of this report, none of them have added up to anything much. It’s not that I was expecting much, as I called this as an inside slider back on Tuesday. The morning photo from the top of Roundhouse shows the story. Snow was falling over the Carson Range along the east shore of Lake Tahoe, but just a few wandering clouds made their way farther west over Alpine Meadows.
What did happen is what I said would happen. It was very cold this morning. It was 22° at the base and 16° at the top of Summit. An east wind was blowing from 40-50mph, which brought the down the windchill to –7° at the top of the mountain. The Summit lift began the day on wind hold. A number of hearty souls were lined up early at the Roundhouse lift, hoping for an early opening at 8:45. Alas that was not in the offering today. Roundhouse opened at 8:59, leading to perfectly groomed slopes that were not busy yet.
That was the last groomed run I skied today. Between traffic on the slopes, 5-10 minute liftlines and the chill of going fast…going off piste, making a lot of turns and slowing down was the best solution today. That said, there were those that felt the need to load ABC to the top of Alpine Bowl and then hurtle down in a nearly straight line to do it again.
No there is not any great off piste terrain available on the lower mountain with temperatures well below freezing. But when it has not snowed in nearly three weeks, you choose the line that is just barely skiable and call it your own. I would have preferred another spring corn session at Sherwood, but I could not convince anyone to even go look. Sherwood consistently had the some of the shortest lines today, so that probably answers the question.
Dogs And The Alpine Meadows Ski Patrol Were The Highlight
As a part of California Ski Safety Week, the Alpine Meadows Ski Patrol offered an avalanche dog demonstration and meet n greet this morning. We planned our morning carefully to allow for a timely arrival at the top of Bill’s Hideaway, without needing to stand in the long line at TLC. We arrived at 10:59 am after no wait at the Scott chair. There was a lot of energy already as just about every kids team below the ages of 10 were there for the show, along with adults like myself that just love dogs.
Patroller Chase Allstadt led the show, featuring patrol dogs Bette and Echo being put through their search routines. Willing patrollers allowed themselves to be buried in a nearby snow trench, giving the dogs a search target. Bette, who is just starting her training, located both patrollers within minutes. Echo is the more experienced of the two dogs and was tasked with finding a buried human scented sweater that had been under the snow for an hour. Echo retrieved the sweater before I had a chance to pull my phone camera back out of my pocket.
The presentation finished with a general quiz game on the Skier Safety Code. Those that offered one of the elements of the code were rewarded with some Smith helmets and goggles. It was a fantastic way to take a break from skiing, albeit exceptionally cold. Everyone in my group either quit skiing or went in for a mandatory warm up break after the show.
The Alpine Meadows patrol dogs are funded by the Alpine Avalanche Rescue Foundation, and your donations are very welcome. We always recommend a stop at the top of the Sherwood lift to purchase an AARF t-shirt. The shirts cost $25 and you can pay via cash or via Venmo. If you are not at the mountain and just want to make a donation, you can click the logo below to be magically transported to the AARF website.
Will Tomorrow Be A Powder Day? Next Weekend?
There could be a small amount of fresh snow tomorrow. A friend just texted and said it’s now snowing, but the webcam looks unconvincing for much accumulation. Earlier today the point forecast called for 1-2 inches tonight, but it now shows little or no accumulation. This system has rapidly taken a dive to the south. Here’s the GEFS for snowfall through Monday morning. It looks white around Tahoe, in a bad way.
Update: It’s been snowing lightly this evening and the point forecast was again updated to show a possible 1 to 3 inches overnight. My fingers are crossed that it happens.
The east winds continue into Monday, then we get a bit of a warmup midweek before the next system moves in next weekend. Someone has convinced people that this system is the “game changer” and that lead to several people asking about my thoughts on it today.
Right now, it looks more like “rinse and repeat” than a “game changer”. We get a brief ridge, then the next system moves in again as an inside slider. That means a relatively dry system again. Here’s the GIF that shows the movement of the low pressure systems from today through next weekend:
We want that low to come in over the Pacific Ocean, not Oregon and Washington. As of this minute, here’s the total snowfall through next weekend via the GEFS:
I could cherrypick another model that presents a more desirable outcome, but the GEFS has been the champ at modeling this drier than average season. Everyday I have people tell me that it always turns around in February or March. That is not always the case and I would refer you back to this post. I just can’t really justify advertising any sort of pattern change until there is some mechanism out there that would suggest a change. Our usual key indicators of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the PNA Index are all just not doing what we skiers hope they will do during the ski season.
Go skiing or don’t. I said I might not ski today, but then got shamed into doing so. It turned out I had enough fun to go again tomorrow, and the next day, etc.
Thanks for giving some love for the AARF dogs. We were there too. I appreciate your candid weather forecast. I don’t like it but I do appreciate it.
The ski patrol dog demonstration was awesome. A big thank you to the patrollers that put on the demonstration.
It is 5pm, and snow is falling from the sky. My deck is beginning to turn white.
Glad to hear there are fresh flakes!