Buttery Corn

Let’s get the winter part of the day out of the way quickly before we get to the signature dish. Yes, the groomers are still excellent at Alpine Meadows. But when you are on day 63 of the ski season and you have been skiing every day, skiing just the groomers does not cut it anymore. We did the perfunctory runs off of Summit and Roundhouse this morning until about 10:30. By that time most of the corduroy was stripped away, leaving behind a surface of broken cookies and icy plates. The reality was we were just biding our time until Sherwood softened.

My wife pointed out that we could just skip the morning hours and ski later in the day. But there is a group of people I like to see, some of whom only ski those first few hours, relishing that corduroy. So ski in the morning is the norm, followed by a speed brunch from Treats before heading over to Sherwood to see what we can find in the form of off piste spring corn. Today that softening happened right around the 11 o’clock hour.

Once again, I skipped the Sherwood groomer and headed straight for Robin Hood, which still offers small rounded bumps with an increasing number of small obstacles appearing. That said, I am still running all of Sherwood this week on brand new skis. The word from people that spent time on Sherwood Run is that more and more rocks are sprouting. If we don’t get some serious snow soon, it will become a problem.

Note some minor updates to the Corn-O-Meter. All of the groomed runs on Scott, Lakeview and Sherwood are now very good corn quality – especially for being “mid-winter”. Most of the off piste terrain that is skied in or gets a lot of sun is perfect. Areas that get less sun and less traffic are still variable. Most of Sherwood is all good. Areas that get less sun (lower angled terrain) or fewer skiers can be variable. A run through the lava plateau on Outer Outer yesterday offered some good corn mixed with punchy spots and frozen crud. All Aspects of Sherwood Face and South Face are spectacular.

I’m curious about High Traverse terrain. While I have seen HiT open at times, the east winds and northeast winds could lead to some real unpredictability. We are not truly into a spring season here, so I don’t expect that much would be good with the exception of CB Chute and the eastern most part of Sun Bowl. Maybe tomorrow…

Hopefully we get one more day of this delicious pre-spring corn fiesta tomorrow before things get “interesting” for the weekend.

The Weekend Looks Quite Discouraging

I would like to be positive here and have a “hope for the best” attitude here, but it is very difficult looking at the weekend forecast. Again, Cletus is most likely wrong. The amount of snow expected to fall over the weekend will not be much of a refresh. The temperatures and expected winds are going to be uncomfortable. Here’s the automated point forecast for mid-mountain:

That Saturday forecast would lead to wind chill values around 0° or less at mid-mountain, with a mostly cloudy sky. I have not missed a day of skiing yet this season, including a bonus 10 days at Mount Rose before Alpine Meadows opened. I am definitely considering skipping Saturday. If your name is BJ on the Palisades Tahoe leaderboard, this might be your chance to tie me for the number one spot. Honestly Sunday does not look all that much better, except for the chance of some sun.

East winds will very likely cause Summit to be on hold for Saturday and Sunday. Windchills of -20° to -25° along the Sierra ridges are noted in the Reno AFD. Without Summit to carry the freight, the other lifts may feel more crowded, especially as more people stay on groomed slopes. Think last weekend, but twenty degrees colder.

East winds and chilly temperatures will continue into Monday before relaxing on Tuesday.

The Longer Range Hopium

Looking at the longer range forecast, we might be seeing the beginning of a change to the pattern. As of today the models are seeing something, more than what we have seen in weeks. Another small cold inside slider looks possible at the end of next week. The GEFS wants to bring a slightly stronger storm after day 10, which we will remind you is Fantasy Land. The Euro is a bit more progressive in that trend, but the GEFS has done the better job with this drier winter. Below is a GIF showing potential total snowfall over the next 16 days. Note that most of that appears in the final frames. Also this is a model run, not a forecast.

There is not a real clear mechanism for why this change might happen yet. But here’s the simplistic PNA Index. Negative is good, positive not as good. There’s a good number of ensemble members wanting to take the PNA negative toward the end of the 16 day run. We really haven’t seen a negative PNA yet this winter, and that explains a lot. No Pacific troughing means no good storms.

Go ski some corn tomorrow if you are here in Tahoe. The rest of the weekend looks perfect for hot cocoa, family game afternoon or maybe a movie. See ya on Sherwood tomorrow….