As we approach the winter solstice, the weather is looking somewhat un-wintery. It was another spring like day on the mountain today, and tomorrow looks the same, but potentially 5 degrees cooler or so. Then things are looking somewhat soggy, and that is not ideal as we head into peak holiday season. But first let’s take a look at how the mountain skied today.
Your choices for skiing and riding today included a growing number of machine groomed runs; off piste terrain that has a south or east exposure with spring corn, or hideously tooth jarring ice crust in north facing off piste terrain. If you played your cards right, it was possible to string all three of those things together.
We started the season with some very limited grooming, corralling busy weekend traffic onto just Alpine Bowl, Dance Floor and Weasel. Over the last 10 days, Charity, Werners and Ridge Run were added into the rotation. We were pleasantly surprised to see that Wolverine Saddle and Wolverine Bowl joined the mix today. That’s important as there are now two independent groomed tails top to bottom of of Summit. Splitting that traffic is crucial as we head into a busier holiday period.
No, the grooming was not perfect in the Wolverine zone today, and that is completely understandable. It takes a few days to reclaim a run from completely wild status and turn it back to a smooth slope. Note that we now have a nice wide Alpine Bowl this week. Hopefully that widening will continue into Terry’s Return at least through Howards Hollow. Word is that D-8 will get into the grooming rotation soon, which is good because right now it looks positively awful. Sunspot currently has a problem with so many small trees at the top, preventing grooming.
Lower down on the mountain, it looks like Yellow could probably be done. Red Ridge and Ladies Slalom still have some very problematic rock bands. Over on Scott, Ridge is currently looking good. Bobby’s needs more snow. Snow making is currently on hold with the inversion keeping that area warm overnight.
So hopefully we will see some of those grooming additions, keeping as much of the mountain skiing decently as possible as we wait for more snow.
It’s actually really tough to see all that much difference after that last series of storms. The south facing terrain is especially getting hammered by excessive sun. Sunday School (aka God’s Knob), Solar Flare, Upper Standard and Mountain View are looking about as bony as they were two weeks ago.
What About Sherwood?
We have been hopeful that we could see additional terrain expansion to Sherwood to give us a little more wiggle room as we head into the busy part of the year. The top of Turbo Hot Wheels has been closed the last three days, reportedly due to extremely dangerous conditions in the steeper areas around Sherwood Cliffs to Hidden Knolls. That has made it difficult to see just how things look. But my friend Ian was walking his dog Elsa near the base of Sherwood and sent these photos today:
And then Jim sent these just now:
The moral of the story is that people that own homes in Alpine Estates are anxious for Sherwood to open so they don’t have to join the traffic and drive to the lodge. While I know that the Sherwood Run groomed slope probably can’t happen with the thin coverage, we have certainly skied the Sherwood side with less snow. Fingers are crossed that we see some prep work being done here very soon as we need options to spread out crowds in the coming weeks.
We Have A Soggy And Windy Weekend Ahead
Yesterday’s models were looking a bit more encouraging with less rain and a lower snow level. Today we have the opposite trend, and that is a bad thing when were are only about 36 hours out. The GIF below compares the last 4 runs of the GEFS for total precipitation through Sunday. Each shows around 0.5 to 1.25 inches across the crest and into Tahoe for the weekend, or more than double what they showed yesterday. Hopefully this is overdone. Winds will be a problem for some lifts throughout this period.
Snow levels have also trended upward. The bold red line is the most likely solution, while the lighter red lines above and below spell out best and worst case scenarios. The bold black line represents Donner Summit at 7200′. The base at Alpine Meadows is about 6900′. So we could start with snow before it likely gets wet. This is not ideal.
The colder storm for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day is looking slightly warmer than yesterday but theoretically is all snow, with up to one foot on the crest. Please Santa, more snow. The models do indicate that the pattern should remain active through the end of the month. Here’s the total snowfall model for the next 16 days, taking us almost to the end of the holiday period. Unfortunately, most of that is about 10 or more days out, into the Fantasyland part of the forecast. It’s better than looking at a completely dry forecast.
No matter what happens, I will just keep skiing…
These posts have helped me so much in terms of what to expect, which skis to ride and when and where safety is an issue (with more and more people crowding the available groomed runs, especially after the rain). The Palisades app is often inept at providing timely, accurate information for whatever reason. Andy, Mark and commenters fill the void. Thanks for your efforts and Happy Holidays to all.
Thanks. We try to stay as positive as possible while also being realists.
I would ski that Sherwood all week.
Agreed
Sure Would