The predictions of a zombie apocalypse happening at Alpine Meadows today did not come true. Frankly, the signs were there for us to see. There were still plenty of free parking reservations available at both mountains all week. There’s been no talk of snow falling in the Sierra on the television weather forecasts since before Thanksgiving. There’s perfect weather outside of the Sierra for golf, bike riding or long walks with your dog. The people that came to Alpine Meadows today were either addicted to skiing (like me) or likely connected to a kid on one of the many team programs that started today. Still, the skiing was quite good today and definitely better than the yesterday with warming temperatures.
There were a couple of places that did seem really busy today. The seasonal locker rooms were full of kids and young coaches excited to see their friends and teammates once again. The chatter peaked about 8:10, and then they were gone, buzzing around the mountain shepherded by their coaches. The energy was exciting, even contagious I might say. It was my son joining the Alpine Meadows Freestyle Ski team twenty plus years ago that really sucked our family into the “what we do is go skiing” lifestyle. I am happy to see more families get pulled into that vortex.
The few groomed slopes on the mountain were also very busy today. Many of those kids on ski teams brought along parents and other family members that were putting in their “Day One” on the slopes. That meant they were looking for some well groomed corduroy to test out their ski legs, retraining muscles they may not have used since teams ended last April. The groomed terrain was quickly chewed up this morning, with smooth corduroy converted to sugary snow and slick areas. A friend of mind labelled this sort of skiing as “patch skiing”, where you’re just looking for patches of loose snow to have a better chance of holding an edge for each turn. Thinking back on my day, probably about 5% of my day was spent on groomed slopes, primarily the West Runout to Summit.
Truth be told, using the parking lot as a gauge, Lot 3 was not filled and only a few cars were parked in Lot 4. This was on a Saturday, in December. Yikes.
In a “good news, bad news” sort of way, the temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer today than yesterday. This was mostly due to the winds. Yesterday’s wind started from the north and then turned from the east. That chilly wind put the freeze on much of the off piste terrain yesterday. That did not stop my from skiing a lot of runs that were very firm, and very noisy. I got roughly a dozen warnings yesterday about a “loud environment” from my Apple watch, most of those occurring on Sunspot. Today, there were none of those warnings, even when the afternoon DJ on the Sun Deck started some bass heavy EDM at a volume that could be heard at the top of Summit. Get off my lawn!
So yes, there was a lot of softening today, making much more of the mountain pleasant for skiing and riding. If you were willing and able to ski moguls or other ungroomed natural terrain, it was easy to avoid any crowds today. Lines at Summit remained at 2-3 minutes all day, perfectly tolerable.
There was some productive snowmaking in Charity and the lower part of Werners overnight. The guns put out a drier mix that actually was very skiable. It took an area that was miserable firm bumps a couple of days ago back to being a very nice alternative today. Word is from well placed sources that the hope is to start grooming a portion of Charity and Lower Werners as early as tonight. We saw some diligent ski patrollers out trimming willows in that area this afternoon which would support that idea. This would really take some of the pressure off of Dance Floor as the only easier route down the mountain.
We really need some snow. There’s some concern about how long the grooming can continue in Alpine Bowl without more new snow. I’ve noted a few rocks getting kicked up in the last few days. The last sort of natural snowfall was back around November 26th.
A Topsy Turvy Forecast
I’ve been rooting for a change to our weather pattern for the last week now, noticing little hints of possibility. Yesterday, even though it was Andy’s day for a report, I still did my standard review of the models and they put a smile on my face. Then I noticed that there were others starting to talk about a change:
What does appear likely is that the strength and persistence of the West Coast ridge will fade during this period, allowing at least some Pacific storm activity to reach the West Coast. Whether this brings widespread rain/snow to California remains to be seen, though it is possible. – Dr. Daniel Swain at WeatherWest.com
Some of the more aggressive outcomes bring potential for 3-4″ liquid (2 or more feet of snow) near the crest and pull in enough cold air for snow levels dropping to many western NV valleys by next Saturday. – NOAA Reno Forecast Discussion
But this afternoon’s model runs are disturbingly less encouraging. That’s not surprising since there has been some model disagreement. There’s definitely been some flipping and flopping. So here we go with the details. The most recent run of the GEFS total snowfall through Monday shows the potential for 4-6 inches of snow by Monday. Most of the models I have presented this season have been the GEFS, as it has been reasonably proficient.
The Euro model continues to be a bit more aggressive with this storm, but it has also toned things down in the last few runs. This last run shows the potential for 6-10 inches of snow over the weekend. Better, but we need significantly more than that.
Keep in mind that we are about a week out on this storm, so anything can happen and hopefully that looks like more snowfall. The models don’t get to be really good until 3-5 days out. Looking beyond next weekend, the models really begin to diverge, with the GEFS looking to dry things out and the Euro wanting to double down on snowfall.
Here’s the latest PNA Index forecast, which is based on the GEFS model (an ensemble model that shows several possible solutions). I don’t like all of those ensemble members moving us back to a positive PNA state, or ridging in the Pacific.
Here’s the total snowfall forecast produced by the Euro model through December 22nd, showing a potential for three feet or more of snow:
Again this is one run of one model. It is not a forecast. I show it here only to illustrate how strongly the models disagree at this time. I would point out that when we see the model disagreement and flip flopping, it’s generally a sign of a drier snow season, not a banner snow year. That said, some meteorologists would point out that the models have a lot of trouble with the transitions between seasons leading us to the statement “don’t panic yet”.
The winds turn from the southwest to southeast tomorrow, keeping temperatures lower again. Off piste conditions may suffer tomorrow with the new chunder created today. We get a few good nights of snowmaking temperatures the next few nights, and the first hints of natural snow around Thursday. See you out there.