Welcome To Winter?

Yep, it’s December 1st today. We have been on a mission to train you to think in terms of meteorological winter around here, meaning winter begins today. You would not know that by the weather today, nor the ski conditions, which are turning spring-like. That does not mean that the skiing is bad, it’s just not really winter just yet. Hopefully winter is not waiting for “Hallmark winter” to begin on the winter solstice..

Over the hill at Palisades, 9 lifts were opened on the upper mountain and all attention was drawn that way for the ski day. It was nearly a ghost town when the lifts started loading at 9am this morning as Alpine Meadows returned to its role of “supporting cast member”. It’s the Alpine Meadows we love. Honestly the crowds were not as terrible over the last few days as they could have been. The upper lots at Alpine Meadows never did fill, although the B2B did contribute to the crowds. In contrast there were just a couple of dozen cars in Lot 3 around noon today. I skipped my normal spot in Lot 3 this morning as there was parking available in the second row of Lot 1, mere steps from a morning cinnamon roll at Treats.

Yesterday was downright warm at Alpine Meadows. I hate being hot. My lightest jacket was too hot. My usual winter gloves were too hot, as was my regular ski helmet with ear pads. I dressed for spring today, ditching the jacket for flannel and my Hestras for my Carhartt work gloves. Then it turned out to be mostly cloudy today, with the clouds exceeding what was forecast. We have this huge “rex block” over the northern pacific, blocking out the real storms. But today, an undercutting low streamed some clouds up from the south. We noted some virga falling over the west slope of the Sierra and some actual rain was recorded out near the coast. It’s an unusual pattern for the first day of winter, looking more typical of August.

Once again the overnight lows were too warm. At Summit the temperatures only reached 36°. The base area dropped momentarily to 31° overnight. Snowmaking teams continued to make some ultra wet “snow” on Charity and lower Werners. The product looked like someone spilled a Big Gulp Slurpee on the slope. It’s exactly what’s needed to fill in the creek bed on Werners and bolster the pack to allow grooming in the area. It was not so pleasant for skiing today. It’s all a part of the process when Mother Nature is not cooperating.

The grooming expanded overnight in Alpine Bowl. Yesterday we saw about four tracks wide, likely an incidental bonus due to a snowmaking blowout. This morning we were blessed with 8-10 tracks wide, with enough overlap of the tracks to create a much smoother surface. Many people were appreciating the ability to ski top to bottom without the need to ski moguls. I’m still finding some nice lines in the Alpine Bowl zone that are still nicely rounded small moguls. With the upper mountain open next store, and groomed terrain available top to bottom, the rate of growth for moguls should go down.

Obstacles are becoming more notable in some areas. You will not find obstacles where there has been active snow making: Rock Garden, Dance Floor, Weasel, Upper Weasel One, the Subway & magic carpet zone or the runouts. Most of the upper mountain is in pretty good shape, but not all of it. I’ve been tagging some rocks mostly in the sunnier areas of the mountain: Sunspot, Tower 19, Red Ridge and Ladies Slalom. These areas are certain to get worse in the coming week. Consider bringing rock skis if you like adventure skiing as much as I do.

The snow conditions are also changing in an almost spring-like way. In shaded sheltered spots like Pygymy Forest and the D-Chutes, the snow is transitioning from soft winter snow to more of a chalky consistency. In the sunniest aspects, the snow is starting to transition to a quasi-corn. Examples of this would be Upper Weasel One and the ramp from the top of Roundhouse into Rock Garden. Other areas of the mountain, especially the flatter areas are also starting to transition, and today that meant they were feeling sticky. Some people said they did not notice but I know I have not waxed my skis since May so it was rather apparent. “Siri, remind me to bring wax to Alpine tomorrow!”

All skiing is good and I will continue to go skiing every day that I can, and some day the weather gods will bless us with snow again.

Maybe A Change Is Afoot

During my last two weather updates, I basically had nothing. Today, there is a little glimmer of hope out there on the horizon. I try not to get too excited and cherry pick a forecast I like when we are in this situations. I look for run to run consistency and some model to model consistency. So below is a GIF of the last 7 runs of the GEFS for total snowfall through mid-December. Every one of those 7 runs shows at least some snow in that time period. It’s not a lot…maybe a foot or so. But it is something.

The difference is that like 90% of the model runs over the last week showed absolutely nothing. Most of this possibility is still about 12 days out, which is Fantasyland. It’s sad when we are banking on a fantasy to get us out of a nightmare. This is not at all a forecast that you should rely on. It’s just a sign of a possibility of change on the way. Reading the models, the ridge pulls westward enough to create what might be an inside slider. It could be a “one and done” and not a full pattern change.

Here’s the PNA index forecast. You can see where most of the ensemble models show a weakening of the ridge about ten days out. What they do not show is a trough in the Pacific, indicated by a negative PNA. There’s two outlier models forecasting a deep trough and I am rooting for those guys!

See you out there tomorrow…probably not going to be all that busy.