UPDATED: Questions Answered & Questions Unanswered

We are starting to see more consistency in the spring conditions on the mountain this week, which is a big bonus for those that are ready for a spring corn season. We are also finally getting our questions answered about a return to winter for the weekend and into next week. Looking toward the end of this season and next season, more questions are being brought up with each passing day.

Today was the warmest day in this streak of early spring skiing days, and that is appropriate for those of my friends that insist on today, as the vernal equinox, being the first day of spring. I see it more as there’s more time for a bike ride after skiing due to the days getting longer and longer. The mid-mountain highs at Alpine Meadows today reached the low 50’s and that would explain that sticky feeling I kept getting around 1 pm. That’s not to mention I was wearing my lightest jacket over an AARF tee shirt and I was too warm right out of the gate this morning.

There was some good groomed terrain today, if you like cookies (aka machine tilled snow). Andy said it best this morning when he noted that some chefs must be in town for a baking competition. That said, Sunspot and Terry’s were excellent in the morning sun, but then you still had to search for a path back to Summit that consisted of the fewest cookies but not boilerplate. Kangaroo Ridge offered that path this morning. After 4 laps on Summit, I headed for the warm corn slopes of Sherwood.

By 9:45 am, things were already soft at Sherwood, and both the main run and Robin Hood were busy. I was late to the party. But groomers have recently been doing the run to skiers right of Robin Hood, which merges into Robin Hood lower down the mountain. The older maps have that listed as Maid Marion, the newer maps have a different run named Maid Marian. At any rate that has been excellent and provides a good route to the faces of Sherwood. I raised the corn rating for these slopes today as they are getting a bit more consolidated and smoothing out a bit more. With better consolidation, there’s less ruts that form.

I would also point out that things are changing rapidly at Sherwood, with rocks reappearing at a rapid pace. If you don’t spend a lot of time on the faces of Sherwood (Left, Center and Right), then consider slowing it down and checking your line, as it has changed quite a bit over this warm spell. I also ventured over to one of my favorite lines, Chute Zero, which is the leftmost path of South Face. It provided the smoothest corn experience today. I don’t mind mentioning it today because it’s even better when it turns into slush bumps. The melt out in this area looks comparable to late April or early May. Yikes. On a similar note…Outer Outer is also in the going going stage.

In the afternoon, the D Chutes down to Wolverine to Boomerang to Banana Chute has been my jam. Most of that has retained a good amount of firmness, which is a welcome respite from afternoon glop in the sunnier areas. That said you still have to endure the sticky flats from Sandy’s Corner to West Runout to get back to Summit. Good wax is essential, but a base grind with good structure would be better.

See update below for upgraded forecast Wednesday and Thursday look like they will continue to be spring skiing. Sunny skies are expected, but a strong southwest breeze will keep things about 5-10 degrees cooler. For Friday, we make a temporary return to winter conditions. As of now snow is expected to come in around midday. Expect crunchy conditions until snow does fall. I have been showing you models with a bunch of inconsistency lately. Today we are seeing some continuity between model runs, three days out from the storm. That has kind of been the norm for this season. The last seven runs have consistently shown 12 inches of snow possible, spread over three days, not as one big dump.

A second weaker system is still out there for later next week. A return to spring will be a bit delayed. I’ll give the gentle reminder here that powder turns to glop quickly at this time of year. Hopefully that second system comes in a bit sooner.

Wednesday Afternoon Update: There’s been some changes to the forecast since I posted yesterday. This storm is coming in warmer and wetter than it looked yesterday. Frequent readers will remember that I mentioned it was possible that this could be a little more AR like. The Sacramento office of NOAA has released a Winter Storm Watch calling for the possibility of 1-2 feet of snow above 5000 feet and a possibility of 3 feet on the highest peaks. The cost of that extra moisture is slightly higher snow levels. For Friday, the could range around 7000 feet, leaving the bottom of the mountain soggy. By Saturday, the colder air arrives and should bring snow levels to 4k to 5k feet,

I’ve been using the GEFS Ensemble model a lot here this season as it has not been quite as ambitious as the GFS. It’s been a “not quite as ambitious” winter so the GEFS is where I would place my bets. Yesterday it showed 12-16 inches of snow by Monday. Today it has crept up to the 16-20 inch range. Also the timing has tightened up, with the heaviest snow falling from Friday afternoon until Saturday evening. I’ll update again in my post tomorrow.

Questions…

In my last post, I had mentioned that I had been getting some hints that Alpine Meadows may not go beyond April. I have continued to ask around, as have others. There’s still no clear message being given, even to employees. It’s weird when employees ask what I know…maybe not so weird as I am at Alpine Meadows more than many of them.

But checking out the socials, the bigger questions being asked have to do with pass renewals and parking reservations for the 24/25 season. People want to know:

• Is there any real evidence that the reservations are really solving anything? You can find commentary online where people claim it’s absolutely better as there have been fewer days of outright gridlock compared to last season. But is that reservations “working”or just that there has only really been one good storm this season? There’s just as many people saying they struggle to get a reservation, and the reservation means nothing as they get here and don’t find parking. Reservations have pushed more skiers into the midweek days, which is great for the bean counters but bad for people that enjoy quiet days on the mountain.
• How will parking reservations change for next season? Will paid parking for all on the weekends become the new norm to quell the over demand for free spaces? Will there be any improvements to the reservations system, which works, but not in a good way?
• Alterra chose not to manage crowding by limiting the number of days Ikon pass holders get at PTAM for next season as some resorts do. But they did raise the price of the Ikon pass by $100. How will the price increase affect the number of Ikon passes sold in the NorCal market?
• What steps is Alterra making in securing a second or third ski area in the NorCal market when passes are obviously oversold?
• At what point will some government agency sack up and stand up to the duopoly in skiing that is overburdening ski areas and the surrounding communities?

According to the Honk website, next weekend is the final weekend for parking reservations this season…unless they extend it. Last year, it was maybe understandable that the parking plan was not announced and clear before pass sales started. There’s no excuse this season, we should know exactly what the plan is before purchasing passes. It’s almost like they do not want us to know…