Some Spring Weather Ahead And Then Questions

It was another windy day at Alpine Meadows and it appears I may have skied during the wrong part of the day. That’s not to say that skiing was all bad during the morning hours, it just looked more fun for the afternoon shift. The Evil E was still at work this morning, keeping both Summit and ABC closed for the day. During the morning hours, the skies ranged from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. That cutoff low in southern California that contributed to the east winds also brought wraparound clouds to the southern Sierra.

We were right on the edge of that cloud bank. At times it looked like we might even see some lake effect snow. Sometime around noon we took a few final runs and the skies were extremely dark, making visibility very poor. By the time we made it home and made the mistake of looking at the webcam, it was a completely bluebird day again. Temperatures moderated a bit from the chill of the last two days, and the winds did die back significantly except at the crest. Crews held out hope for the Summit lift, not starting the breakdown of the maze until 3:30.

The groomers were great this morning, but it was not a day for zooming around at a fast pace due to the wind chill. So once again I found myself on a quest to find the north facing terrain that had happened to catch some loose snowflakes rather than be stripped of it. For the morning hours, that meant a lot of Roundhouse laps. Rolls and Knolls and the Yellow chairline area each offered chalky surfaces with just enough blown in snow to make runs less tooth jarring.

We took a lap to Sherwood mid-morning, not expecting much. It had been under a back dark cloud all morning, with only brief stints of sun that could have softened the snow. Mid morning on Robin Hood was not all that pleasant, being a firm surface covered in marbles. I am certain it was much better in the afternoon once that magical sun was able to do some work. Still, Sherwood was better than the run I took off of Scott yesterday. Remember how I predicted coral reef conditions in my last report? Upper Standard yesterday morning went beyond “coral reef”, instead skiing somewhat more like volcanic rock.

The parking lot was getting pretty busy today, with Lot 4 filled almost to Chalet Road when we left. Cars with skis and boards created a solid stream of traffic into Tahoe on 89. It’s likely to be a busy weekend, but not as busy as last weekend. Free parking reservations are gone, other than the occasional cancellations. Paid spots are still available.

There is still going to be some residual east winds tomorrow, but hopefully not enough to impact Summit. Clear skies are expected and that will assist in softening south facing terrain more quickly. We have not seen great thaw and freeze cycles over the last two days. It’s been mostly freeze. That means we will still be dealing with some manky snow and stickiness until the corn cycle progresses a bit more. I’ll be excited to ski some longer runs tomorrow, after two days of no Summit.

Spring Conditions Should Rule Until Thursday, Then It’s Questionable

We should see some weak ridging over the next 6 days that will give us a taste of spring weather. We could see temperatures into the 50’s at the base area by next week. Anyone that has endured the chill of the last two days is probably looking forward to a few warmer days. That pattern still looks pretty consistent through Wednesday. By Thursday, the ridge looks like it gets undercut. The models are still in pretty big disagreement for what that means. The king of the models for this season has been the GEFS ensemble. Here’s a GIF of 24 hour snowfalls through the next 16 days. Note it’s dry for the first half, then we see a series of weak storms during the last week of March.

The GFS, one of the more well known members of the ensemble, is much more ambitious about bringing a lot of snow during that last week. The last few model runs even got a bit coo coo for Cocoa Puffs, showing a potential of 60 inches of snowfall for the week.

I don’t buy that solution yet. I mentioned earlier this week that some teleconnections might come together. The significant one would be the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). That is a surge of moisture that circles the oceans and it is the most likely precursor to AR events. Snowfall like shown by the GFS above would likely be the result of an atmospheric river of moisture. But looking at the latest MJO forecast, it doesn’t look good.

For the western US, the most productive phases of the MJO are generally 7, 8 and 1 (which is the best). All of those yellow lines are the different model forecasts. The green line in the “consensus” of the models. The MJO looks like it may never make it to Phase 1. Also note how it weakens. The farther the green line is from the circle in the center, the stronger the effect of the MJO. Inside of the circle, it’s basically having no impact on our weather. In comparison, for much of las season, the MJO index was completely off the charts, outside of the box.

Additionally, looking at the models for atmospheric pressure variations, it’s not much. We have a weak ridge for next week, followed by a very weak trough the last week of March. It’s difficult to even find a cohesive low pressure system within the trough.

So given the model inconsistency, and diminished signs of anything really developing, I would not expect any magical ending to March at this point. But you know that I will keep a watch on that.

A Map Question

Some of the questions we get about maps just can’t be answered. With 63 years of history at Alpine Meadows, there’s not all that many people around that really are aware of the entire history of how each run has been named at our favorite ski area. Although Andy Wertheim has been skiing at Alpine Meadows since it opened, he was something like 5 years old at the time. Through much of that first decade, very few runs had official names. Another problem is that there has not been one consistent source producing maps for the area over its history. Looking back at the ski maps over the years, there’s often a mismatch. Some areas are named very consistently and others…not so much.

One question we get frequently is the run that has offered almost perfection over the last week. Some call it “Our Father” and some call it “High Yellow Gully”. So in the interest of clarification, I spent some time perusing the maps at SkiMap.org and looking at that region. Here’s four different snapshots in time:

You can see that it has changed over time. Here’s the recap:

• 1970: The gully and the face are both dubbed High Yellow; Our Father is applied to the cliff area and what is now called Counterweight Gully
• 1997: The gully is labeled as Our Father; High Yellow Face is as it is currently; High Yellow is labelled as the area where you traverse from Terry’s Return, which we generally call Medium Yellow now.
• 2001: The gully becomes High Yellow Gully and Our Father becomes Our Father Traverse. That would be the traverse across the top of the cliffs which probably caused many to pray for their edge to hold.
• 2018: From this point forward, the maps get very general, but it does seem that High Yellow Gully does apply to the gully, and Our Father applies to the cliff area. Last season was one of the few seasons where that zone was more skiable.

It’s been a long time since I have done the hike, due to my left arm being all flubbed up. But doing the hike to Keyhole and then skiing down the ridge past F Tree and turning left, you access the top of that gully about 50 yards above the traverse. At one time there was a High Yellow Gully sign there.

There’s other map areas to question, where runs seemed to have moved around. One day we should talk about Sherwood, and another about the Weasel Zone. That will be another post…

Lastly…I did a purge of skis earlier this year. I had promised my wife I would before I bought a new pair. But there is one pair I neglected to sell back then, so it is for sale now. If you’re interested in a QST 106, here’s the info. SOLD!!! Local pickup only.

Note: SkiVC sent in this image capture from an on mountain map at the top of Roundhouse about ten years ago: