Wow, that was a beautiful and very spring like weekend, which was perfect for people wanting to watch the World Cup, and those that just came to Tahoe to ski and ride on a weekend that did not include snowy weather or chain controls. It wasn’t just Palisades and Alpine Meadows that was busy, I saw some pictures of very long lines from just about every mountain in my InstaFeed. Also noted was the sometimes stop and go traffic headed westbound on 80 this afternoon as we returned from a weekend in San Francisco.
Here’s the part where we can all laugh. Part of the decision to get away for the weekend did have something to do with possible crowds. I am not sure that going to San Francisco was the right choice for achieving that goal. While Friday evening was blissfully quiet around Ghirardelli Square, the rest of the weekend was far from quiet. There were sunny skies and temperatures near 70°. At one point, I am fairly certain the the number of bikes crossing the Golden Gate outnumbered the total number of skiers at Alpine Meadows. Still we had a great time, even though a weekend in the city is ridiculously expensive.
I did say that I hoped to come back and write a report about the upcoming weather systems today. I see that Andy already gave you a ski report for today. One part of me felt I should let it go, but the weather news is pretty big at the moment.
Storm Number One: Monday
The last I looked, this system was on life support. There’s still more model disagreement than I would like to see just 18 hours out. One part of the system that looks certain is the wind. Most of the rain and snow associated with the storm is headed into the southern Sierra. We’ll be catching a lot of wind as the front passes through the Tahoe area tomorrow morning. It’s probably enough to close several upper mountain lifts for tomorrow. Here’s the point forecast for Alpine Meadows tomorrow:
The point forecast is automatically generated based on mostly the short range NAM, which is not as serious about the storm dropping to the south.
The GEFS Ensemble model takes things farther south, showing only a couple of inches of snowfall for Alpine Meadows. It’s complicated as there are a couple of little lows that could rotate around each other that may bring more snow. So the wind is a sure bet, snow amounts not as sure. Snow levels have also trended lower, as last Friday it looked like mixed precipitation.
Storm Number Two: Thursday to Monday
This is the one that you may have been waiting for….or maybe more than you were waiting for. Last Friday it looked big, and now it is looking even bigger. March will absolutely be coming in with a roar. We are now 4 days out and there is actually some decent model to model consistency and run to run consistency. Here’s the latest run of the GEFS Ensemble for total snowfall through Monday. That white zone means a lot of snow is on the way. You can see that I clicked to show the point for fairly near Alpine Meadows and it shows 81 inches of snow. If that pans out, it’s definitely the biggest storm of the season so far. Still, even if it manages to bring 3 feet of colder powder, I will be happy.
The other thing for the casual observer to note is to look how wide that band of snow is over the Sierra. When we see higher snow levels, that band is relatively skinny, as only the ridges are seeing snow. Snow levels with this storm start significantly lower than we have seen lately and are forecast to drop nearly to Colfax, or even Applegate by the weekend. Also, the wind forecasts include the usual 100+mph ridge winds.
So, if you are not in the area by Thursday, it is a good possibility that 80 will be closed for some long periods through this storm. If you are here by then, expect that lift ops will be very limited due to winds and avalanche hazards. While it will possibly be a very stormy weekend, it may turn out to not be a great ski weekend. Patience will be required for this big storm cycle.
There are several other storms possible after these two over the next 16 days in the models. I don’t know that it is time yet to call it a Miracle March. But as of now, March is coming in with a roar.
That bridge ride is absolutely chaotic on nice weekends. Glad you survived!
That lion is yawning, not roaring. ;>)
LOL
We city-folk have the same disdain for visitors as Tahoe locals have about Bay Area people! Just kidding, glad you had a good time in SF! But please don’t take up the entire sidewalk when walking and always drive on the right so we can pass — especially on the GGB :).
LOL we noted that people walk 4 and 5 abreast on trails there…just like they do on trails here.