The Cutoff Low Blues

That strong jet streak that was the talk of the town early in the week, well nobody is really talking about that any more. It was finally going to steer some bigger storms our way and kick this ski season into gear. Unfortunately, much of that hope has dissolved. We’re right back into cutoff low season, where the low pressure systems wander just off the coast, and lack much if any predictability.

The first of these lows is headed to our north, leaving us in a more stagnant high pressure situation, resulting in a strong inversion. While the base area at Alpine Meadows barely reached freezing overnight, mid mountain temperatures were in the high 30’s. I was surprised to see them still blowing “snow” on Red Trail this morning. I’ve heard it can be done up to about 38°, depending on the humidity. How does that work? It’s all about that compressed air. If you have a lot of compressed air and suddenly release it, the temperature goes down suddenly. That is the Ideal Gas Law, or pV=nRT. Hah, I did learn something in Chemistry, Mr. Doe!

The next cutoff low is out in the Pacific until late Sunday, when it looks like it moves inland just a bit. That will bring heavier amounts of rain to coastal areas of California, with less amounts reaching the Tahoe area. Since the low never moves east, we get stuck only on the eastern edge of the low, where the flow of water vapor is south to north. Yeah, that is the warm side of the storm. We never get a frontal passage that brings the really cold air.

The forecasts are all over the place, but none of them are good for Tahoe, with the exception of Mount Rose. We could see anywhere from a tenth of an inch of rain to more than a few inches of rain by Wednesday. Snow levels at this writing seem to run about 8500 to 9000 feet for most of the storm and could drop to 7000 feet as things wind down Wednesday. Then again some of the forecasts have called for snow levels up to 10,000 feet. That’s a bad solution for us. One disgruntled skier today said he had heard ” The snow level is going to be in outer space for this one”. Yeah, I can’t get too excited about El Niño either.

The downside for this forecast is that it also puts snowmaking on hold if humidities get too wet…ie rain. Right now, my fingers are crossed that this cutoff low stays way offshore until it tracks inland over southern California.

Right at the minute, it looks like we get a clear patch later next week until Christmas eve. Then a stronger series of storms is “possible” the last week of December. But I will say it again, the models have been complete trash forecasting anything more than a few days out this season. Honestly I would not count on a change unless we see something that is going to create that change. Right now, that impetus for change isn’t there, other than weather forecasters just wanting to provide some sort of hope.

So I leave you tonight with a couple of thoughts. Be safe out there this weekend, because based on today, it’s going to be a junk show at Alpine Meadows this weekend with so little open terrain. Also, I present to you this Bob Dylan masterpiece:

The Cutoff Low, No Snow Blues by Bob Dylan (AI)

Well, the sun ain’t shining, and the sky’s turned gray,
There’s a cutoff low, causin’ a ruckus today,
Ain’t got no snowflakes fallin’, just a cloudy haze,
I got the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, just another phase.

The weatherman, he’s talkin’, but he don’t make no sense,
Promised me a winter wonderland, but it’s all suspense,
Got my skis ready, my boots buckled up so tight,
But the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, takin’ away my delight.

Chorus:

Oh, the wind is howlin’, the rain keeps pourin’ down,
Ain’t no sign of snowfall, oh, it’s a mournful sound,
I’m stuck inside, dreamin’ those snow-filled scenes,
But the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, tearin’ up my dreams.

I hear the kids laughin’, they’re playin’ in the snow,
Buildin’ snowmen, sleddin’, oh, I long to go,
But the weather’s turned fickle, playin’ tricks on me,
Got the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, makin’ me feel so empty.

The icicles are drippin’, but they ain’t hangin’ right,
Ain’t no glistenin’ wonderland, just a dim twilight,
The storm’s a-ragin’, but it’s got no winter flair,
Got the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, bringin’ me despair.

Chorus:

Oh, the wind is howlin’, the rain keeps pourin’ down,
Ain’t no sign of snowfall, oh, it’s a mournful sound,
I’m stuck inside, dreamin’ those snow-filled scenes,
But the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, tearin’ up my dreams.

Well, I’ll keep on prayin’, for that snow to fall,
Cover up this dreary land, I need it one and all,
I’ll keep my fingers crossed, for a winter’s magical touch,
To break this Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, I need it so much.

But ’til then, I’ll strum my guitar, singin’ my winter song,
Beggin’ Mother Nature, don’t you dare take too long,
I’ll serenade the snowflakes, in hopes they’ll hear my plea,
To end this Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, set my spirit free.

Chorus:

Oh, the wind is howlin’, the rain keeps pourin’ down,
Ain’t no sign of snowfall, oh, it’s a mournful sound,
I’m stuck inside, dreamin’ those snow-filled scenes,
But the Cutoff Low No Snow Blues, tearin’ up my dreams.

I swear, the AI robots are going to take over the world.