So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance

Hey, remember two days ago when I mentioned that the Canadian and Euro models were seeing a storm for Sunday? At that time, the GFS was not on board with that solution. Looking at the model runs over the last 24 hours, I am telling you that there is a chance this might just happen. As of this afternoon, the models are pushing the idea of 12-16 inches of snowfall. It might happen. We are within a 5 day window of that storm, so the believability factor has certainly increased. Here’s the latest run.

Friday Update: We’re still on track for snow, but the timing has moved up. Most of that snow looks to be Saturday night. The unanswered question is snow levels. It’s not the coldest storm ever, but it looks like they get to 6000 feet. Fingers are double crossed.

That’s not going to be enough to open any large part of Alpine Meadows or Palisades. It might be just enough to get something more than SnoVentures open. Looking at the webcam image of the Tiegel zone, you can see that the mountain ops team has put down the start of a base for TLC to be a consideration. It’s not enough to support an opening day crowd of skiers just yet. If the storm above really does pan out, it would go a long way in building the pack.

Taking a look at the MJO, which is an important source of moisture in El Niño years, things are starting to get more active. We are out of the circle of doom and headed more strongly into Phase 8 and 1, which typically bring the moisture needed. Moisture is not the only required ingredient. We also need the development of an appropriately placed low pressure system. Right now, the models are supporting that…and hopefully that pans out.

So there you have it. I am here to tell you that this thing is not a sure bet. But we are looking at something within the range of reasonable forecast models. The automated forecasts have not yet picked up on this development. Cross your fingers…wash your car again…and consider planning a hike and picnic for the weekend.

Rob Carlmark, my preferred TV weather forecaster from ABC10 in Sacramento, posted up the seasonal forecasts for the January through March period. These are issued by NOAA. I would note the same thing that Rob did in his post. The darker shades do not indicate a greater amount of warmth or precipitation. They represent a better chance of that solution. My take is that these two forecast pretty much highlight the classic El Niño pattern for California.

Where The Snow Is

You might recognize that as the tagline for Mount Rose. The base elevation at Mount Rose Ski Area is 8260′. With snow levels running at about 8000 feet overnight, Mount Rose picked up mostly snow overnight, while lower ski areas picked up mostly rain. Rose reported in with 1 to 3 inches of new snow overnight. Randy and I were there bright and early to verify those reports.

Generally speaking, it was right on. There was definitely an inch of new snow at the base lodge. I think two inches is probably a more accurate call for most of Kit Carson Bowl. I wouldn’t call it the first powder day of the season. With the snow level at 8000 feet, the consistency was something more like frosting and skiing it was like velvet. Yeah there’s something about getting that first run of natural snow after skiing manmade for a few days. It was all pleasant until the heavy fog and drizzle moved in around 11am.

The crowds were very limited today. Tomorrow is the SkiGIF Friday promotional day. You can ski from 12-4 for $59, advanced purchased online before midnight. Also, Boreal will open the Castle Peak chair tomorrow. Tickets are only $25 and might be worth it if you are looking to find some park features and want to be a part of the scene.

I look forward to the day where we can get back to skiing and riding at Alpine Meadows. I’m going to go flush some ice cubes down the toilet right now and turn my pajamas inside out for tonight.