Those storms that we have been talking about for the last few days are now on our doorstep. Both are well within the range of certainty, so they are less likely to fall apart or disappear at this point. There are a few changes, all on the positive side, if you like sliding on snow. The totals for the Thursday system have increased a bit, and the Reno NOAA forecast discussion suggests that the Saturday storm totals could exceed the Thursday system. The caveat is that the second system may focus further south than Alpine Meadows.
The expected totals by Friday morning could be in the 20-30 inch range for new snow. Snow levels start around 5000 feet so it will be good base builder snow. For the Saturday night system snow levels should be much lower, possibly 2000 feet. Thats exactly the way we want it, a heavy base with lighter fluff on top. By Monday, areas around the crest could see as much as 4-5 feet of new snow.
The Reno forecast discussion mentioned it’s likely there will be periods of time where snow falls at 3-4 inches per hour. One person today told me they heard 6 inches per hour…the hype train is running full steam ahead today.
So the good news is that this will all lead to a lot of terrain expansion at some point. Anyone that has skied Alpine the last 9 days in a row, you’re probably ready for something new.
There are some potential things to keep in mind:
• The winds are forecast to be at 100-120 mph over the crest tonight into tomorrow, and 40-70 mph at mid mountain. This will really limit what terrain could possibly open. Combine that with the heavy snowfall rates and you’re talking whiteout conditions. Power outages? Probably so…
• The roads are going to be a mess. It’s almost a guarantee that 80 will close a couple of time over the next four days.
• Avalanche warnings are up, due to the high rate of snowfall. That will limit the amount of mountain prep work that can be done until ski patrol can mitigate the danger to mountain ops people.
So, the message here is to keep your expectations realistic. I don’t have a direct line to people that run the mountain to know exactly what is going to happen. But I have been around long enough, skiing just about every day the mountain is open to know how this might work. So I’m willing to make some educated guesses here:
• It’s a pretty solid bet that the upper mountain over at Palisades will not open tomorrow. We have seen it happen dozens of times with a similar forecast. Red Dog is not complete yet. That leaves First Venture and possibly Resort chair as possibilities tomorrow. Thursday 7:45am update: Nailed it.
• At Alpine Meadows, it’s a pretty good bet that it will just be TLC to the mid-station. If that happens, be thankful it’s not that 13 minute Hot Wheels ride anymore. If Palisades is basically closed, it could get busy. Conditions could be bad enough that it’s a magic carpet day. We have seen that happen before. Thursday 7:45am update: Nailed it.
By Friday, things should be better. I would not expect any major expansion by that time. My best guess is that we will still be on Roundhouse, Yellow and TLC. Conditions on Werners and Charity will be much improved. It’s also likely that terrain off of Yellow chair will be opened. We could see Summit by Saturday morning – but if it’s just going to be windy and dumping snow over the weekend, that may not happen until next week. There’s a long season ahead – this one is just getting started. Be patient.
Honestly, I am not as hip to the order of operations over at Palisades. Best guess is Big Blue and Shirley are solid bets for Friday. KT? No idea. Siberia? No idea. Silverado? That’s easy. No.
The models still look relatively dry after these two systems. That will give mountain ops a bit of a break to rapidly get more terrain open before the peak holiday season arrives. Temperatures are expected to be very brisk over the next week, allowing additional snowmaking next week.
Evidently “winterier” is actually a word. I think that “wintery-er” is funner. Hope we have some skiing tomorrow!
Join the club, its absolutely unloading up here in N Idaho. I almost feel like im back in Tahoe, multiple feet in the last 24 hrs and if this is headed your way, buckle up. 2 More days of this and we are only at 2500ft. I haven’t checked the resort totals yet as IM on a ranch and pushing ALOT of snow around. This storm is a monster, I’ve never seen it snow this hard up here. Its snowing 4 inches an hr right now which is fine but a little different when you have acres of property and animals.
Missed you this morning. I was late getting out, but I did have some fun making turns in soft snow. It is still dumping over here in Alpine Meadows.