Updated: Snow? Yes. Snowmageddon? Not Yet. Okay, Maybe.

I am so ready to just go skiing every day. Mammoth Mountain is actually opening early this weekend. In most years, I would likely jump at the chance to head on down and take some early season turns. I think it’s possible we’ll be hearing an announcement from Mount Rose soon too. It’s likely I’ll hold off on skiing until Alpine Meadows opens, reportedly still on November 22nd. That ADU project in my backyard is still taking most of my time these days.

Good news, the Remote Data site for Ward Peak (aka Alpine Meadows) is now back in action. It reported 11 inches of snow accumulation at the base area from the last storm, now settled to 10 inches. The webcam pics of workers digging out the deck area near the new gondola seemed to verify that total. That’s not enough for skiing just yet, at least at Alpine, where the underlying surface is rarely smooth or rock free. It does cool down the ground and make for much more effective conditions for the snowmaking team to start laying a more solid base. The official blog reports that the new system is now completed along Weasel run.

That minimal base is probably a good time to mention the hazards of skiing with a minimal base. This is the 10 year anniversary of Annalise Kjolhede’s death at Alpine Meadows. She was an employee that went out for some pre-season powder turns with friends and was tragically killed when she hit an obstacle under the snow. No matter where you consider finding pre-season powder turns, the least we can do for Anna it to keep it chill. You don’t want to miss out on this season or future seasons.

The weather prognosticators have been firing up the crazy train in looking ahead to the storm for early next week. At this time of year, TV personalities and bloggers alike are guilty. Anytime I hear one of them use the phrase “we’ll be measuring in feet”, I take the time to review the models myself. While you could cherrypick the model run you like to say this is the “game changer” storm, it’s looking less likely. Is it going to snow? Almost certainly. Looking at the models this morning, the trend is definitely in the downward direction. I’m not talking about snow levels, I’m talking amounts. Here’s the model trend GIF, you should pay attention to the last few frames.

The models called for 12-18″ at the summit from the last storm and that seemed about accurate based on the base area accumulation of 11 inches. My best guess at the minute is that the storm early next week will deliver about the same. There is another storm possible later in the week and then the models seem to dry things out a bit. The skier in me says “bummer”; the guy trying to finish the siding on an ADU says “hopefully”.

Update: The models started going crazy again yesterday and the point forecasts have now picked up on that too. The point forecast is valid for about the top of Roundhouse. 30 to 40 inches is the current call. If that were to happen…would there be an earlier opening? Staffing is always a question…

According to the official blog, the goal is to have both TLC and Roundhouse ready for Alpine for opening day, and some other stuff open over at Palisades. I’m excited to see just how much snow the new system can pump out. Early season turns on TLC and Roundhouse are far more fun than an early season on the Roo. Go get ’em snowmakers!