Dual reports today with Andy checking in on ski conditions and Mark taking a look at a possible pattern change:
A warm wind was blowing this morning when we loaded Summit Chair in our search for untouched corduroy. The crowds from the weekend were long gone, leaving locals, and a few visitors, the place to ourselves for at least an hour or two. The sky overhead was blue once again, but clouds and a pinch of snow has been promised to us this evening.
Warm temperatures turned south facing slopes to spring corn earlier than in the past couple of days, but the shaded north facing slopes remained similar to previous days. Groomed slopes were again lovely and continue to hold an edge when making wide sweeping turns or sharp quick turns. Sunspot and Solar Flare softened early offering a smooth surface while Alpine Bowl, Terry’s Return, and D8 were more winter-like. Corn moguls could be skied off God’s Knob and on the South Face at Sherwood.
Winds increased throughout the morning causing Scott, Lakeview and Summit (also TLC for a bit) to close just before noon. Winds were steady at the top of Summit at over 70 miles per hour and gusting into the 90’s. On our last couple of trips up Summit Chair ice crystals were blowing into our faces as we off- loaded the chair. I suggested we cover our faces or get hurt by these little devils.
It is Valentine’s Day. Happy Valentine’s Day to everyone. It is a day to show love and care to those close to you. Give your loved one a hug today and keep a smile and a good natured outlook to all of those around you.
Enjoy your day,
Andy
A Bit Of Snow and Chill For Tomorrow…And The Potential For A Pattern Change
There’s a well advertised change in the weather for tomorrow. We’re going to have to remember how to do that winter thing, as snow returns to the forecast for the first time in 37 days. I certainly would not call it a major powder day, with the models looking for three inches at most. High winds and cold temperatures are on call for tomorrow, with high winds certainly making it likely that Summit will not run. I heard they are expecting at least twice as much snow over at Palisades. Here’s the point forecast for mid-mountain:
Beyond that, the weather models are all over the place. Yesterday, there was a rush of excitement as some of the model runs showed the potential for a real snow storm next week. Today’s model runs pulled that expectation back to just another inside slider every 4 days or so through the end of the month. Maybe just maybe, the ridge will back off into the Pacific just a bit farther and allow a Gulf of Alaska low pressure system to take an over-water trajectory into the Sierra.
The “big picture” signals say it’s still possible. The PNA Index is trending downward in almost all of the ensemble members, which indicates troughing is expected in the Pacific. That’s better than the resilient ridging we have been seeing. You can see that the “Deepcember” PNA Index was far lower.
The weather dweebs are also excited to see that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO is headed into the third phase. During the months of January, February and March, phase 3 is the wettest scenario for the west coast.
So there’s a little bit of something to hang your hopes on…we shall keep paying attention for a more active pattern.
You keep missing out on some great skiing over at Sherwood! No more grooming happening for Maid Robin Tucks, or the right side of Sherwood Run due to rocks and dirt. But the Sherwood Run that remains was great, as was Powerline and the East Gully zone. I’m surprised it got soft as the wind was howling. I have never seen Sherwood having chairs flipped up, but today they did. There was a time where Sherwood was running today, but no way to get there with Scott, Summit, Lakeview and TLC all on windhold…lucky people on that side had a private resort until TLC restarted.