It’s Hunker Down Time

All of the counter jinxes and snow dances appeared to have worked. That incoming storm system made it from “Fantasyland” to the “Realm of Possibility” and into the “Almost Certain” zone. Looking at my Twitter feed, there’s all sorts of proclamations about this being the biggest storm of the season, and the season is just getting started. One forecaster even called this “the storm we will be talking about for years.” After writing about 2500 blog posts about skiing and weather over the last decade, I’ve become a bit more pragmatic…or just call me jaded. I can accept that.

Here’s what the Sacramento office of NOAA put out last night showing potential snowfall. The caption on the post mentioned that they need to revise the color chart to more clearly show the potential snowfall of these mega-storms.

This storm is now in the range of the shorter range models (NAM and SREF), and the picture looks pretty clear that this scenario is looking more and more likely. The automated point forecast for Alpine Meadows is also getting into agreement. Of course, as those short range models provide the data.

Before I was even out of bed this morning, my wife had done the math. That would be 52 inches on the low side and 80 inches on the high end. The point forecast for Alpine Meadows is at an elevation of 7997 feet, or roughly at the top of Roundhouse. The top of the mountain could make it into the 100 inch plus totals, but that will be tough to measure as the winds are going to be very high at the peak of the storm, most likely above 100 mph.

What does that mean? We’re going from “zero to hero” in about 5 short days. Nearly every forecaster has also used that phrase this week, so I may as well use it too. If you planned on a job as a snowmaker this season, that may not last long! There should be plenty of snow to open the whole mountain if this thing pans out. That said, it’s going to take a $%#* ton of work by mountain ops and patrol to get things prepped and ready to open safely. Even getting to the mountain to do the work may be a challenge.

We’ve spent the last few days doing all of the prep work that I have been avoiding. The lawn furniture is put away. The mower is covered. I even ran the snowblower to clear the 5 inches of snow we saw earlier this week. I got that appointment at Stone’s to put on snow tires and our pantry is filling. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

There’s a couple of sad notes to pass on. A memorial service for Zach Steele was held at the Alpine Meadows lodge on Thursday. Steele was well know around the Alpine Meadows and Olympic Valley communities as a fun loving and passionate skier and speed flyer (paragliding close to the ground). He was killed in an a speed flying accident near Alpine Meadows around Thanksgiving. I had the pleasure of meeting Zach on a few occasions. It’s easy to see why so many people showed up for his memorial. Kudos to Alpine Meadows for providing a venue for the memorial.

Also of note, one of Alpine Meadow’s favorite retired patrol dogs, Ike, passed last week at 13 years. Even in retirement, Ike showed up for work because he loved to play in the snow. As soon as I saw the announcement on my social media feed, I immediate recalled hearing Ike’s happy barks, just about every time he loaded the Summit chair. We will miss you Ike!

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