Getting Closer…

Things are looking way more winter-like over the last 24 hours. For those that are anxious to hit the slopes at Alpine Meadows, your patience is going to be required. Looking at the remote data sites for Alpine Meadows and Olympic Valley, from 6-8 inches has hit the ground from this storm, which is spot on the forecast amount. It’s not going to be enough to open any new terrain at Alpine Meadows, and maybe not at Olympic Valley just yet. I know that’s not what you want to hear. I noted yesterday in looking back at my photos, this will be the latest start for my ski season in the last 18 years.

Checking out the webcams and comparing the change over 24 hours…love it!

The good news is that the new snow is that wet and heavy spackle, which is just what we need right now. I can imagine that right now, the snow harvest is happening in the parking lot. It’s ideal for filling in low spots and setting a base for the lower lift corrals before the real storm arrives. If the forecast goes as planned, temperatures should be low enough for the snow making team to blow snow continuously until the next storm arrives Sunday evening. The caveat to that is how much available water there is to make that much snow.

Looking at the next storm, it looks like a solid typical AR-ish snow even for the Sierra. The hype train was really rolling last week and I refused to buy a ticket. My interwebz feed was full of dreamy models showing the possibility for 100+ inches by next week. But a model run is not a forecast, and model runs that are a week out are in “the realm of possibility” and not something you can count on.

Looking at the ensembles this morning over the last couple of model runs, I would be more confident in saying that we should see 2-3 feet of snow out of the Sunday to Tuesday system. Here’s the latest run:

With a few days of snowmaking and 2-3 feet of natural snow coming, we should see Alpine Meadows and Olympic Valley getting into top to bottom operations by early next week. It does take some time to prep the mountain once that snow has fallen. Ramps and roads have to be built and all sorts of signage and rope lines put in place before it’s go time. Could we see some lower mountain opening sooner, as in TLC or the mighty Roo? It doesn’t offer much, but the Roo is easier to open than any other chair. My fingers are crossed.

Taking a look at the extended range, the ensembles keep the storms rolling in every couple of days right up until Christmas. That is a far better scenario than one huge dump.

For those that just can’t wait to ski, First Venture and the Kaya carpet continue to roll at Olympic Valley. Boreal is running the Castle Peak quad, with no word on the Accelerator chair to the top just yet. In bigger news, Mount Rose will open the Northwest chair, offering top to bottom skiing, tomorrow (Friday 12/10). While several of us have the one day a week “My Pass” at Rose, none of us chose Friday as our one day of the week. Buying a full day lift ticket looks to cost $101 for tomorrow. I am just not that motivated yet.