The Wait Continues

After a false start and some Halloween skiing, the wait continues for some real snow and skiing in the Tahoe area. As much as I would like to suggest that big storms are on the way, they are not. With the exception of the huge pre-Halloween storm, the pattern is looking remarkably like a typical La Niña pattern, with the jet stream pushing hundreds of miles north of California. That’s going to lead to an unexpected outcome. It may just happen that skiing at Alpine Meadows will be delayed by a lack of snow, rather than the construction project at the base area.

Yesterday, looking at the 16 day model runs, there was nothing. Zip, nada, and zilch. This morning there is a glimmer of hope with a small system pushing through about a week out. I guessing that happened because I need to drive to San Diego sometime in that time frame. Looking at the current model run, it’s one and done and not enough to make much of a difference. Hopefully that changes.

Snowmaking has also been somewhat of a bust, with an inversion providing cold temperatures and fog over the lake and in Martis Valley, but shirt sleeve weather at higher elevations. The mid-range forecasts keep trying to bring in colder air by the middle of next week, but that can keeps getting kicked down the road.

If you really want to go skiing, Mammoth continues to be the only game in town. Unfortunately, since it is the only game in town, some lift lines are longer than you may want to see. That said, conditions off of Chair 3 and Chair 23 are reportedly pretty good and chalky and operations in the terrain park are expanding.

The lack of weather has meant that the base area construction at Alpine Meadows has been moving along. Looking at the photos that Andy sent yesterday, it seems plausible that if there was snow, the area could operate on the previously announced opening date of November 24th. Things are “buttoned up” for the winter on the silly gondola project. The extension of the Sun Deck is progressing. The installation of steps from the breezeway is in progress, making things look a lot like they did 10 years ago.

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Skiing will happen at some point. For now the mountain biking has been pretty great over the last week. The trails at lower elevations are nice and tacky. I’ve seen a lot of cars parked at the access points for A1/Jackass and Sawtooth/BigChief this week, even mid-week. That’s not surprising, as upper elevation trails are snow covered and the Northstar bike park and Truckee bike parks are now closed.

A Lot Of Ikon Passes Were Sold

Dee Burns, President of Palisades Tahoe made a rare statement about Ikon Pass sales in the Sierra Sun this week. From the Sierra Sun, “Byrne indicated the resort has seen a doubling in season tickets sales compared to 2018-19, and like officials at Vail Resorts, said the idea going into the season is to bring as many to the mountain as possible.” Ouch. ““We, too, embrace the idea of more is better, and we’re not going to be shy to say that, ‘Yeah, we are going to be busy on Fridays, and Saturdays, and Sundays” Double ouch. That is not a great thing for anyone that has ever spent hours in traffic on Highway 89, or arrived at the mountain late, only to find no parking is available. I’ll say it again, what Alterra Mountain company needs is not a useless gondola or waterpark, they really need a third ski area in the Tahoe area to spread pass holders out.

What’s not clear is how many of these new pass holders are actually within “day trip” distance of Alpine Meadows and Olympic Valley. AMC has continued to add destinations to the Ikon Pass, many of which are in other countries. It makes sense that many of those new pass holders have to do with those new acquisitions. Hopefully.