After a false start last month, there’s some signs of a pattern change ahead. It’s not the kind of change that will lead to a huge powder dump, but it is a step in the right direction. If you have not winterized your boat or drained your sprinkler system yet, take heed. It’s about to get much colder.
For the last couple of weeks, we have enjoyed cold night temperatures and warm afternoons in Truckee. We’ve been seeing lows into the low 20’s and highs near 70. Those large diurnal swings in temperature are great for bike riding, but not for snowmaking. More importantly, the typical fall inversions have held strong, so overnight lows on the mountain have been much warmer, even above freezing.
By Friday, the ridge over the Pacific should pull back just a bit and allow a storm to move into the western US. Two days ago, it looked like it could pull back enough to bring a decent chance for rain and low snow levels over the weekend. As of this morning, it looks like it could turn into an inside slider again, bringing a lot of cold air, but not much moisture. Here’s a view of that cold low could end up over Nevada.
We’re still 5 days out, so things could change. The ridge could pull a bit more east, allowing the storm to take a wetter line into California…or it could go the other way and send the storm into the Rockies. The colder air component has a reasonable chance of happening in any scenario.
As of this morning, mountain temps could stay below freezing throughout the weekend, allowing for intensive snow making to begin. Different than the last round, temperatures are not expected to rebound to warm temperatures next week. We may see some additional systems following the first. That is what models are currently suggesting as the likely scenario.
Several sources have said that early season snowmaking efforts will focus on the Weasel area instead of Kangaroo. In the past, it’s been easiest to get the Roo open first, as it’s a small area to cover, and the terrain is relatively smooth. But in the interest of keeping people spread out a bit more, the intention is to open Hotter Wheels (aka TLC) to the mid-station first.
It’s a much larger area to cover, and the terrain is not nearly as smooth as the Kangaroo Run. Hopefully the weather will stay nice and cold into the extended period to allow the snow making team to work their magic. Having Mother Nature jump in with a big snow dump would be a nice touch too. We will keep watching for that!
