The forecast for the midweek storm has changed quite a bit since we reported on the weather last. A few days ago, everyone was in agreement that all of the factors were in place for a really good storm, and maybe several storms. Slowly those hopes have eroded. The major real change is a split flow in the jetstream that will mean that moisture will not be forced up and over the Sierra. Overall, here’s the impacts:
• The forecast totals have dropped from 2 – 3 feet down to 6-12 inches at the crest.
• Snow levels are forecast to be higher, starting above lake level and maybe even above base level. Expect the snow to be more like cement and less like powder with this storm. It’s okay, it’s what we need to rebuild the base and keep the season alive.
• The forecast for high winds have been eliminated, reducing the possibility for closures
• The timing has been sped up. It now looks like most of the snow will fall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning
Here’s the 5 day precipitation forecast from NOAA:
After the quick shot of winter Tuesday, the ridge rebuilds and we return to spring conditions by next weekend. We’ll take any snow we can get right now as some areas are getting a bit thin.