I am sorry for the lack of reports this week. I am not sure what Andy has been up to, but tonight, I talked to frequent reader Ski Junkie. The report for the last two days is awesome. As always following the sun and timing your day is important. Early arrivals have not been important, unless you need up close parking. Waiting for the sun to warm your favorite runs is the important thing to do.
Snow is definitely getting thinner on the Sherwood side, but Alpine has been making some serious efforts at snow farming to keep things going. Lakeview was also showing brush and rocks this week. As long as you pick your lines carefully, south facers are offering fun morning turns. It’s been warm enough that north facing slopes are softening nicely by midday. Several people have mentioned that the D’s are super fun this week.
Looking ahead to the weekend, conditions are forecast to be breezy, but still fairly warm. Alpine Meadows has 2 bands scheduled for the Spring Music Fest. Leche De Tigre, a “gypsy funk” band will play Saturday and Mojo Green will play Sunday. There’s no doubt that there will be some St Paddy’s food and drink specials on Sunday. Mainly, enjoy the sun and spring weather….because there is a pretty decent storm in the forecast for next week.
We have been in a negative PNA state for a bit, and the MJO, while weak, is about to round the corner back to the wetter phases 1, 2, and 3. Nearly all of the models, bloggers and NOAA are in agreement that the right factors are coming together for the next Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Here’s the forecast discussion:
.LONG TERM…MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY… MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS ON ANTICIPATED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LESS THAN USUAL SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET LATE TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN ADEQUATE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A BROAD 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SIERRA. WITH STRENGTH OF THE JET AND RIDGE WINDS AND STRONG MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF SPILLOVER AS WELL. QPF TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND UP TO 0.5 INCHES INTO WESTERN NEVADA; THIS COULD BE A DECENT SYSTEM AND DEFINITELY MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. HOLDING OFF ON SNOW TOTALS FOR NOW SINCE ANY DEVIATION IN STORM TRACK WILL DRASTICALLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
BA at OpenSnow.com does a great job summarizing the models in today’s report. BA is optimistic that this first storm will be as big (up to 2 feet) as our last storm set, but compressed into one day. He also see’s more storms in the pipeline. Just looking at this picture is enough to make me pretty excited:
Wind may be an issue Wednesday, with NOAA forecasting ridge gusts to 110mph Wednesday. This may be a factor in selecting a day for an appointment with Doctor White. We will keep you posted…