It was the first measurable snowfall at Alpine Meadows in 13 days, according to the Alpine Meadows Snow Tracker site. Two inches of new snow fell at the base and three inches was recorded at the top of the mountain. While it’s not much, it is a start. Unfortunately most of my friends and I missed skiing today. Don’t even get me started on the difficulties of getting primary healthcare in the Truckee/Tahoe area when your head cold takes a turn for the worse.
I can tell you how it probably skied. Areas that were groomed were much more likely to stay edgable throughout the day, as the adhesive powers of fresh snow far exceed the adhesive powers of sugary, granular snow. For those that ventured off piste into moguls, they found troughs filled with new snow and icy moguls rearing their ugly heads in-between. Others may have found areas that were wind stripped and devoid of new snow. But people with ski sense picked out those lower angle areas with some wind protection, where the new snow may have filled in even deeper. I wished I could be making some mini-powder 8’s someplace on the mountain, rather than spending the morning in the waiting room at TTMG!
Alas, today is over and tomorrow should continue to get better. Another wave of snow moves in tonight. The point forecast is calling for 1-3 inches tonight and another 1-3 inches during the day tomorrow. That is roughly at the top of Roundhouse. One TV forecaster suggested up to 8 inches, which will bring some midweek skiers to the mountains. There’s another little wave and winds forecast for the weekend.
More importantly, the models are getting much more serious about that big one or two storms out there toward the end of next week. A couple of the model runs were showing more than 80 inches of new snow at the crest by next weekend. Snow levels are also forecast to take a dive next week, with as much as 20 inches of snow forecast in the greater Reno area. You really do not want to be in Reno if that happens, not that Highway 80 will be any better. As of this afternoon, several waves of heavy snow are expected between the 16th and the 23rd, leading to #JanuBuried again.
While this is great news for keeping the ski season going and refreshing the mountain, it will be problematic if it all comes at once like that. That storm would be quite likely to close highways just before the next big holiday weekend, Martin Luther King weekend. You could also expect that we would see some pretty big impacts on mountain operations, as that much new snow falling on a firm base is not exactly a stable scenario. So I’m actually rooting for a lesser scenario. I would be more than happy to get 2-3 feet earlier in the week, followed by another 2-3 feet over the MLK weekend. But we’ll take it as it comes….maybe it won’t. The models could flip again.
THURSDAY UPDATE: Can you say “flippity-flop”? The models today are saying a storm next Wednesday-Thursday is likely to be more of a “one and done” with a ridge building in for the MLK weekend and far beyond. That’s good news for resorts and those businesses that depend on holiday skiers. It’s really too early to guess single storm totals…
That is troubling news about snowfall, many resorts suffered below average holidays in terms of skier visits and lesson volume (anecdotally per instructors at various resorts) only a couple came out at or above average. Losing the typically 3rd busiest weekend of the year will result in major budget shortfalls.
Honestly I would not mind seeing crazy busy holiday weekends. It’s good for the industry as a whole and the thought of losing such a huge weekend is quite troubling. Here’s to hoping that roads and operations somehow stay open!
I completely agree. We like snow in moderate amounts, at a consistent pace.
Try fowarding your special weather request to Defense Contactor Raytheon , who “scripts” the forecasts to the NWS and NOAA ,whose employees coincidently are also under a federal gag order in regards to this.
So you’re saying Raytheon wants us to go skiing more?
ADD They hold many of the weather modification patents in use today. (There are more than 180 of them in total)
I was wondering where all the bloggers were this AM in the locker room. No Andy, no Mark, and no (honorary blogger) Bob. We saw Bob on the Mtn later, but he must have slept in (or maybe he had an early appointment with Paul Mitchell)? Mark, your imaginary assessment of skiing today was partially correct, but there was a surprising amount on new snow on Yellow and Ladies early – and overall it was not too “scratchy”. Surprisingly, the new dry snow adhered to the old surface pretty well. You know the old saying – “you never know until you go”. See you guys tomorrow. Mark, get over that cold – snow is on the way.
I was trying to not be too specific 🙂