The models continue to go all over the place. Didn’t we just report two days ago that things were looking up? Given the MJO phase and PNA forecasts of 2 days ago, we expected to start seeing some significant storm activity on the horizon. When that was not happening, I went poking around at the Climate Prediction Center again.
Once again there are some pretty radical changes back to the dry side, explaining the minimal chance of precipitation before the end of the month found in the NOAA forecasts. Here’s what they looked like 2 days ago. Here’s what they look like now:
Remember that a negative PNA is a good indicator of stormy weather ahead. All of the models trended negative two days ago. Most have them have shifted back to positive today. Here’s a similar “not what we ordered” MJO forecast:
The MJO phases that work in our favor are Phases 1, 2, and 3. We have been stuck in Phase 1 for a week, with the previous forecast indicating a shift into Phase 2 and 3 over the next two weeks. As you can see, the latest projections have the MJO cruising through Phase 2 and 3 this week and pushing in to Phase 4 and 5 in the second week. Meaning that we get a very short period of moisture that may or may not connect with an open storm door.
This graphic has been used a lot lately at various weather blogs. It shows the average rainfall expected in the western US during various phases of the MJO. Green is good, brown is bad. We start seeing a lot of brown in Phases 5 through 7.
It may be a while before we see any real significant snowfall. Of course the models may change again just as quickly. Learn to love what is there. I guess it may be time to start thinking about corn for next weekend…