Some people are in for weather shock as we head into the weekend. Certainly the daffodils and ladybugs in my backyard will be in for a rude awakening. For those of us that just can’t get enough skiing, the situation looks like just what we needed. We’re not calling it the March Miracle yet, but at least we can call it “Maybe March”.
Here’s the forecast for Alpine Meadows over the next 5 days. You can see that the transition from Thursday to Saturday will be rough for those people that have become accustomed to skiing in t-shirts. You can also note the chances of snow for Saturday and Monday.
It’s a bizarre system that is bringing us this cold burst and chance for snow. We first talked about it last Monday. Under normal circumstances, weather systems follow the jet stream from west to east. This weekend’s cold system is retrogressing from east to west, leading to only a chance of snow in small amounts due to the dry trajectory.
The models have been bouncing around a bit over the last couple of days. But this mornings runs are once again bullish on a significant pattern change as we go into March. The timing has slowed down just a bit, with the most significant systems not arriving until somewhere around the 4th. The PNA trend is still negative for all ensemble members.
The GFS total precipitation over the next 16 days is also looking very productive. It’s not all one system, the models show a series of systems coming in with a deep Gulf Of Alaska low. We have not seen such an impressive series of GOA storms over the last two seasons. You can also see on the model that there is no AR connection that brings in tropical moisture, so these storms are expected to be much colder than we have seen this year. Some of the forecasters that hang out at WeatherWest.com have suggested that snow levels should drop to the foothills if the current models hold up.
There’s the rub. The bulk of these systems are still out in the Fantasyland range of the GFS. There is still time for things to completely fall apart. Model runs yesterday were bearish on the pattern change, and then today’s were right back on track. One thing we have going for us is that the PNA trend has remained consistently negative for about the last 7 days. There is hope fore this season yet!
Sounds like a recipe for perfect dust on crust conditions. Not that I’m complaining.
Yeah the weekend will be “character building” snow
As far as weather forecasting goes we’ve all seen how GFS forecasts have been off for quite some time. NOAA Weatherunderground, accuweather,weather nation, etc all use modeling from private subcontractor Lockheed a sub of Boeing and use about 85 or so combined sensors including sat data.
Ecmwf the european forecast uses more than 120 data collection points as well as constant updates from ocean going vessels and aircraft real time data.
The big storm forecasted to shut down nyc last month by gfs model was inaccurate compared to the quite accurately predicted in precip amounts by ecmwf model compared as was hurricane katrina. It is well documented by most weather buffs.
GFS forecasts are not as precise or accurate as ECMWF, has been proven time and again.
For ecmwf you can go to unysis.com for a more accurate forecast.
I dont trust gfs accuracy anymore.
I have seen a lot of people talk crap about the GFS, especially after it missed the forecast for that NY storm. You wonder how much the models were off versus media hyping.The GFS forecasted our three storms this season with pretty good accuracy around 10 days out. As for me…I look at several model runs of the GFS plus the Euro and the Canadian pretty much every day. I generally post pictures of the GFS because it is widely available for free without infringing on subscription services.
it’s actually http://weather.unisys.com
But when’s it gonna dump?
Sept for ironman???
I recall amgen tour being cancelled mid may ’11 and a phat pow day memorial day weekend. weird weather and temps these days, who knows, gfs, ecmwf whatever, doesnt matter till its on the ground.
Keep reports coming, always good to have hope.