Does Today’s Little Dusting Mean We’re On The Way To “The Big One”?

Things felt a bit different today around Tahoe. If you read yesterday’s guest post, you may have developed the itch to get out and enjoy some sun and fun in the spring weather. But today brought some cold winds and overcast skies that lead to poor visibility and scratchy conditions on the slopes. That did not matter, as the mood around town certainly changed when a few snowflakes fell around 6pm. When we say a few flakes, we truly mean a few flakes.

We said in our last weather report that this storm would generally bring wind and little precipitation. That’s because this storm was not your typical winter storm. It didn’t come from the west, and it didn’t come from the north, nor was it an inside slider or a Tonopah low. No, this one came from the south. In fact, it was very typical of a summer monsoonal flow up the eastern Sierra. The only thing that was missing was the thunderstorm potential. There wasn’t enough heating to generate those sort of clouds. Here’s the radar that indicates the direction of the flow:

Yeah, that’s not normal at all in January.

So did this “storm” help break down the RRR? Not really, forecasters discussing the event at WeatherWest.com suggest that it may have strengthened the RRR by pushing it further north. We’re not quite ready to lose this ridge yet.

Looking strictly at the GFS models, there continues to be a lot of variability in the possibility of rain and snow the first week of February. There’s a couple of good things going on though, and the best we can do here is be a dealer in hope:

• All of this waffling is now being seen 10 days out, rather than only at the end of the 16 day GFS model. The pattern frequently this season has been for the GFS to introduce storms on day 15 or 16, which then disappear by the time they are 14 days out. The potential for storms has remained to some degree in the model for almost a week and that’s a small improvement.

• BA at OpenSnow.com reported today that other models are beginning to come into agreement with the GFS. He posted graphics indicating up to 18 inches of snow on both the GFS and Canadian model for the Fri-Sun period next weekend. Of course that could happen, as I just made the commitment to be at the SIA show in Denver that weekend, and I was not planning on bringing skis.

Things are not quite so simple though. The models are still all over the place. Here’s a comparison of the GFS model runs from 1200 and 1800 hours UTC today. You can see there is quite a difference. One looks like an awesome powder day, and the next run looks like dust on crust.

All we can do is wait a few more days. If these possible storms are still in the models by Saturday, we should see more run to run consistency and model agreement. All of the forecasts do much better within the 7 day window. For tomorrow, temperatures are still expected to be cool and windy. It will be a great day for groomers as long as you dress warm. Or you can just enjoy some skiing on ESPN3…both David Wise and Brita Sigourney will be skiing at ESPN Winter X Games Superpipe finals tomorrow evening. We’ll be cheering them on.