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Snow 9 Days Away?

One recurring theme of the year 2013 is that there is always a storm at the tail end of the GFS model, or the elusive “two weeks out.” Today, I skied Mount Rose, where they are in much worse shape than Alpine Meadows, with zero off piste terrain available. The topic of the day was how much longer could Rose stay open if it doesn’t snow soon? People have asked those same questions about every Tahoe resort this week, at least that would be my guess.

As always, we have been watching the models closely and paying attention to all of the other weather bloggers around Tahoe. There’s been a lot of talk about a significant storm arriving on the 8th and again around the 11th – those elusive “2 weeks out” storms. But the last couple of model runs are looking way more encouraging, Not only have the above mentioned storms stayed consistent in the models, the timing of new snowfall is beginning to push sooner. The latest model runs are showing some light snowfall beginning around the 5th, only 9 days out. Once we get inside of a week out, these forecasts become much more reliable.

Although these storms are going to be a little late to save most of the holiday season this year, they do offer a glimmer of hope. We included a quick loop of the GFS model from January 5-12, as it shows a week or more of some consistent snow, with a couple of pretty good waves coming through. This is just the sort of pattern that will be critical in restoring faith in the season just before the Martin Luther King holiday weekend. I know I was getting tired of hearing forecasters proclaim that there was no change in sight.

Today’s report in brief? Alpine picked up a bit more traffic today, apparently after a sewage problem kept the upper mountain closed for at least part of the day at Squaw. Roundhouse was down for a couple of hours this morning due to a mechanical difficulty. That’s about all I know about today since I was at Rose. As much as I like Rose, I’ll be happy to be back at Alpine tomorrow.

Update: As of Saturday, the models flipped again, we’re suddenly back into “16 days out” territory…small little crop duster on around the 8th and the ridge rebuilds blocking the bigger storms. The thing is, as BA does at OpenSnow.com, I wait for a couple of days of consistency between model runs before posting anything. Hopefully the last run is just an anomaly and things will look wetter again soon. Glad that I put a question mark in the title!

23 thoughts on “Snow 9 Days Away?”

  1. An architect and environmental designer

    on facebook said the poop pipe was burst by a pressurised bang from a snowmaking pipe.

    There’s a bit of talk about 8 mile pipes and upgrading old infrastructure. a 2nd home owner from San Diego isn’t happy with the last pipe issue (moving pipes to the front street at the owners’ cost) and is anti-town but KSL would be wise to build on solid poop and water ideas, – and seek govt assistance from the new federal task force of Brown and the Mayors for SAC and Los Angeles.

    1. Andy and Jennifer Montomery were/are volunteer firefighters, but there’s nothing in their plans for poo and water and forest fire fighting with snowgun water. There’s no mention of upgrading or expanding ponds, or recycling.

      The same old same old poop pipe problems crop up again and again, but where is the vision?

      The activities for kkids and teenagers and parents are sad compared to Northstar. S’mores at SV’s Chase Realty place vs a freaking big party for buyers at Nstar. Doh, Squaw.

      Then there’s all the pathetic losses of good employees, the problems with boot bags strewn across AM, the coaches not managing the slopes for everyone.

      They can’t even hire licensed lobbyists.

      Maybe they should replace the Avi dogs with seeing eye guide dogs for the blissfully blind corporate execs.

      1. 1. In Undercover Boss, the employees didn’t know that guy looked and sounded like the big boss?

        2. Executives wasted 2 years because they were out of touch?

        3. People knew more about pipes and buses and things than town folk on boards and a lady consultant on a federal public consultancy?

        4. The BoS lady either didn’t know things or she wasn’t saying

        5. The Museum people didn’t know things

        6. The Alpine townfolk didn’t know about Stan Ford’s scoop.

        How can KSL and the town ever hope to run a new and improved resort?

      2. Did they use robots and bio hazard suits?

        when there are lumpy fart ‘accidents’ at the hospital, the ward is isolated and the gloves, masks and disposable onsies are issued asap.

        No one gets in the ward without suiting up. No one leaves the ward without dumping the disposal gear for destruction.

        There were a lot of people on Mtn Run, weren’t there when that poop escaped. Does anyone know if “a mile long pipe of poo’ escaped or was it minor ione?

        Has the incident been handled properly with a health inspection ok?

        Why would anyone put high pressure hoses next to sewage?

    2. According to my calculations, Mr. Spock, an average of 500 voters in the valley look every day at UA over the course of a month. A very sizeable and loyal following indeed, especially if there are only 500 voters in Olympic Valley.

      Why did those Executives underestimate UA?

      I postulate that Squaw’s Execs are living on another planet.

      1. Squaw’s carpark was ‘moderately’ full …on a Saturday …in between Xmas and New Year. Go figure. Moderate!!!

        The village was not jam packed with people either.

        Squaw’s new marketing head lady Christine was out and about looking and talking about chillin in the village’s vibe. Johnny signed autographs too, but the car park was far from full.

        Looking in the future ALL season, my travel sources released really really cheap deals for week-long stays ‘everywhere’.

        What do other places do to liven up holidays? If I was KSL I’d get me fiddle out.

    3. Poo jokes aside, leaking sewage is serious.

      Here are some FAQs: http://www.epa.gov/npdes http://www.hse.gov.uk/pubns/indg198.htm

      Here are some health risks that justify shutting a whole area down.

      Table 1: Organisms that May Be Found in WWTPs or Sewage

      Organism Signs & Symptoms Average Latency Period

      Bacteria
      Salmonella Nausea, headache, diarrhea and vomiting; almost always with a fever. 6 to 72 hours
      Tetanus (lockjaw) Muscular stiffness in jaw, neck. Sweating, fever, difficultly swallowing. 8 days
      Shigella Cramps, diarrhea, fever, bloody stool, nausea, vomiting. 1 to 3 days
      Leptospirosis (Weil’s Disease) Intestinal problems, liver and kidney disease, jaundice. 4 to 10 days
      E. coli Diarrhea, vomiting, little or no fever, blood often seen in stool. Approximately 3 days
      Tulareisis Chills, fever, swollen lymph nodes, stomach pain, diarrhea, vomiting. 3 to 5 days
      Yersinia Diarrhea, fever, abdominal pain that resembles appendicitis. 1 to 14 days

      Viruses
      Hepatitis A Fever, abdominal pain, nausea, jaundice, dark-colored urine. Approximately 30 days
      Hepatitis B Nausea, vomiting, loss of appetite, jaundice, joint pain. 60 to 90 days
      Hepatitis C Develops slowly, loss of appetite, stomach pain, nausea and vomiting. Jaundice is less common. 6 to 9 weeks
      HIV Destroys immune system, prone to opportunistic infections. 1 to 2 years
      Polio Fever, headache, nausea, muscle pain and stiffness, paralysis. 6 to 20 days

      Parasites
      Entameoeba histolytica (amebiasis) Mild nausea, loose stool, abdominal tenderness. In severe cases can spread throughout the body and attack other organs, especially the liver. 14 to 28 days
      Giardia lamblia Cramps, weight loss, loose/greasy stool, bloating. Fever is rare.

      Sources: AFSCME; Utah Dept. of Health.

  2. Says thevillageatsquaw site:

    “Providing onsite employee housing to attract and retain the best trainers and instructors
    Protecting and reinvesting in the mountain terrain as well as investing in professional training opportunities”

    With limited terrain they have to fix something.

  3. is a guru who writes

    “2013 is the driest CALENDAR year in the history of California. That’s not entirely relevant because with winter-concentrated rain a July-June measurement is more relevant. The 2011-12 and 2012-13 ski seasons in terms of Sierra snowfall were the third lowest 2 consecutive years in my records going back to 1971. However, given the first 2 months of this ski season, an average January-April will put it in a tie for worst 3 consecutive years. 1986-87 through 1991-92 was worse because the first 2 years were slightly worse than 2011-12 and 2012-13, followed by one average year, then 3 more poor ones. No question that continued dry for much more of this winter will put the 3 year stretch in unprecedented territory with likely severe water restrictions next summer.”

    Let me repeat: ” continued dry for much more of this winter will put the 3 year stretch in unprecedented territory with likely severe water restrictions next summer.”

    Maybe Squaw should invent its own brand of Deodorant just in case they still can’t find an alternative redundant water supply.

    1. I just saw they’ve decided to do night things like a park and snoventures. Are they slow in planning these things or are they weak in communicating new things?

      ” Check out our Holiday Nights at High Camp and SnoVentures. Ice skating parties, happy hour with Squaw athlete Jeremy Jones, snow tubing, night riding at SnoVentures and more: http://www.squaw.com/holiday-nights

    1. I heard it has arse puckering terrain, and they weren’t lieing

      Must pack my Adult Diaper before my dementia makes me forget 🙂

    2. how much poo can escape from a pipe that runs maybe a 1/4 of the way downhill from gold Coast’s and High Camp’s toilets? And is that a bio hazard event that is investigated by anyone independent to learn wtf went wrong?

      1. Not much poo escaped they said, but it is a long pipe from there to the toilets and restaurants.

        Btw, Moonshine Ink and Unofficialalpine deserve a Best Reporting Award for everything you’ve covered on Squaw. All the ideas on your pages and facebook alerts sparked braincells at, I’m sure, KSL because so many ideas made their way into that new plan.

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