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The Real Storm

I had no expectations for going skiing today. It’s odd when the lift status does not change at the end of the day. At 6am this morning, all lifts at Alpine Meadows still showed “Closed”. Typically some lifts get changed to “Scheduled” or “Anticipated Weather Impact” at the end of a ski day. It wasn’t until I was midway through clearing the driveway this morning that statuses began to change, so I went and put on my ski gear.

As we arrived at the area, it looked like a typical post storm day at Alpine Meadows, with Subway, Meadow, TLC and Roundhouse scheduled or delayed. I was in no rush to get out and join the big line at TLC. Instead we enjoyed a few early laps on Meadow while waiting for TLC. I know, I missed all of that untouched powder, but frankly I don’t care to be a part of a powder stampede. By the time I arrived at East Creek, it looked like it had been schralped within about 5 minutes. Honestly I was biding my time until Roundhouse opened.

Even at that, I was in no huge hurry to be a part of that stampede. The new snow off of Roundhouse appeared to be about knee deep to waist deep. This is about two feet more than your average visitor can handle. On our first ride up Roundhouse we saw two different skiers augered into the snow head first, with only skis showing, each requiring immediate assistance to get out of trouble. It was frightening how quickly people just launched themselves off of God’s Knob, unaware of the mismatch between their ability and the depth of the new snow.

We chose to stick to lines that we know very well, where we could judge the pitch changes and where we might find deeper spots waiting to grab our skis. Playing it safe was at the forefront of my mind today.

Just before noon we noted that the crowds were intensifying, indicated that the dam had burst. Highway 80 opened, allowing anxious skiers and riders to get to the mountains. This is just the beginning of the storm. Parking is completely sold out on both sides for Saturday and free parking is gone for Sunday. Friday will likely be the most busy day of the season. Hopefully we can get most of the mountain back by that time. It’s unfortunate that the two biggest storm cycles of the season have coincided with the biggest holiday periods.

I’m sorry I did not take any pretty powder pictures today, I wasn’t planning on writing today.

We Have To Talk About The Castle Peak Avalanche Incident

For the last 44 years, we have always talked about the 1982 Alpine Meadows avalanche being the most deadly avalanche incident in California history. Seven people were killed in that incident. Books have been written and a movie was made. You can read my summary of the incident here.

Yesterday, an avalanche occurred near Castle Peak, near the Frog Lake huts. A group of fifteen skiers were involved in an avalanche that took the lives of nine. The six survivors waited about 6 hours in blizzard conditions for rescue teams to arrive. Roughly 3 to 4 feet of snow fell over the day proceeding the avalanche, and the danger was rated at exceptionally high. But this is not the time to armchair quarterback the incident or the decisions that were made by the group and the group leaders. If you make comments to that effect, they will not be posted.

The location of the D2.5 avalanche as reported by the Sierra Avalanche center

We have all been there, putting ourselves at risk, because of our love for snow. I mentioned those unfortunate few this morning that misjudged their ability to ski powder off of Roundhouse. Myself, I have set off small avalanches in Outer Outer and Lower 40. I have found myself skiing out of bounds terrain near Alpine Meadows without a beacon, shovel or probe. I played in powder for 20 years before I even thought to take a Level 1 avalanche course.

Some of you have probably done the same things. If not that, you skied in terrain that was way above your ability. You may have jumped off of cliffs and asked your body to absorb flat landings you still felt the following season. Maybe you were the guy in the big white Ford truck that passed five cars at once in chain control this morning so you could improve your line position at KT-22. The best course of action here is for all of us to consider just doing a better job of looking out for ourselves and others.

This incident is going to affect a lot of people. If you live in the North Tahoe area, or spend a lot of time in the area, chances are most certain that you will end up knowing one of the victims, survivors or hundred plus rescuers from the Castle Peak incident. These are memories that will probably never leave us. Official reports will come out summarizing the incident, books will be written. Someone will likely propose a movie too.

Please be careful out there people.

More Snow, Then ???

We have one more significant storm wave over the next 36 hours. There was a time yesterday where some forecasters thought we would see more of a break, and even downgraded this Thursday storm. But the snow never really stopped at Alpine Meadows, and forecasters brought back the Winter Storm Warning language today.

So tomorrow is looking like another powder day. Checking that wind in the point forecast above, it’s going to be another lower mountain day. As of this minute, only Roundhouse, TLC, Subway and Meadow are on the schedule for tomorrow at Alpine Meadows. Summit, Lakeview and Scott are on “Anticipated Weather Impact”….hmmm. Teaser or reality?

Things look to clear out for Friday and Saturday, except for the storm of skiers and riders that will be on the mountain.

There may or may not be another storm late Sunday into mid-week. In my post yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of a warmer AR event. This afternoon, I watched another office hours video with Daniel Swain of WeatherWest.com. He cautioned about the very real possibility of a rain on snow event for early next week that could lead to flooding. Yikes.

That is a LOT of precipitable water in the Euro forecast…that virtual firehose pointed at Tahoe. This is not the storm we want to see. Looking at the latest rundown of the GEFS, we could see enough ridging to keep most of that rain to the north of us. Instead we would just see a return to spring like weather. This is a better solution than rain and flooding.

My next report should be Friday and I will certainly be watching this developing situation. See you out there tomorrow…then again I will be doing my best to avoid people on a small part of the mountain.

6 thoughts on “The Real Storm”

  1. Thank you Mark for your thoughtful take on the Castle Peak avalanche. It’s so true that every one of us has taken potentially dangerous risks – either for skiing or in another realm – and it’s crucial to remember that before the (sad but inevitable) victim blaming starts. Let’s all appreciate our loved ones tonight.

  2. About 4 or 5 years ago I had an out of bounds incident at AM that I’ve only told to one person, An AM ski instructor. I got off the Lakeview chair and headed horizontally left and high toward the main area. I did not knowingly go past any boundary signs. I thought I was dropping into Chute that seldom slides which in about 1/2 mile ends at The Chalet and Scott chair. The snow was soft powder perfect for linked untracked turns. Low to medium pitch. After 2 miles and then 3 miles I wondered where I was. The Squaw/Alpine tracking app which was working fine back then chimed in and said I was closer to Squaw than Alpine. I thought I had skied most of the way to Rt 89.
    I finally came out at a gated private road lined with houses where a woman was walking her dog. I said I had no idea where I was. She went and got her husband. He asked her to take me back to Alpine Meadows in their pickup truck. It was 2 pm. We drove 2 miles to the access road at the White Wolf property then to AM. I tried to find ski patrol to report this but could not find any even in their office in top of ski school building.

  3. Thank you for the kind words in regards to this tragedy. We can reflect on our own close calls, luck, near misses and offer compassion and empathy. Heartbreaking.

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