Looking Forward

There’s not much of a point to talking about ski conditions today. It was less busy than expected to start the day, with many people bamboozled by multiple warnings of possible weather impacts. It’s better that they err on the side of caution, rather than have the masses show up with many lifts going immediately on wind hold. Eventually, people figured out that all scheduled lifts were running, and showed up to the mountain late. That’s when I thought about self preservation and left the mountain. Live to ski another day.

But again, you’re here to find out how much it might snow, how long it might snow, what might happen for mountain operations this week and are there more storms in the pipe line….

In general, things are still looking peachy for a lot of snowfall this week. The models have stayed somewhat steady in overall amounts of snow, with the variations coming in the timing of the start, breaks in the snowfall, and the end of this week’s storm cycle. More snow has been added for next week. We will almost certainly finish February above average for snowfall. Here’s a weather view we have not seen all winter:

Nor have we seen a satellite view with such a nice frontal band coming in with a wet trajectory over the Pacific. All of those popcorn clouds behind the front indicate a lot of cold air flowing in behind the main front.

Looking at the point forecast for Alpine Meadows, we can see projected snowfall ranges for mid-mountain through at least Wednesday. Here’s the table:

There’s a lot to keep in mind here. The point forecast is highly volatile, changing about every 6 hours with the new model runs. As an example, in BA’s forecast this morning, he only saw 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight. So I would not count on these sorts of numbers as “It’s on like Donkey Kong!” The biggest thing to take away from this table is the heaviest snows happening Monday night into Tuesday night and what that might mean for mountain operations. The other big takeaway is that there is now one last wave of snow forecast Wednesday night into Thursday. The point forecast does not include amounts that far out as it is based on the short range NAM model. Expect snow if you are skiing, riding or driving Thursday.

What Does This Mean For Mountain Operations?

In general, they don’t always come out and say things explicitly. So I am just giving some guesses based on a whole lot of years writing these reports and showing up at the mountain during big storms. Here’s some guesses:

Monday: We will likely see limited operations at Alpine Meadows due to very strong ridge gusts. I would expect that Roundhouse or Hotter Wheels will be the top of the mountain. Those lifts could close by the afternoon hours. At the northern annex, KT-22 will likely be the top of the mountain. Operation of the shiny boxes seems unlikely.

Mark was wrong Part 1: The snow is on track, the winds have not been bad. Most of the energy so far is in the Southern Sierra. Operations look normal for today. Tomorrow????

Tuesday: I would not be surprised to see a full mountain closure on both sides due to winds, visibility, avalanche danger, road closures, power outages or all of the above. Your need to go skiing and riding should not be prioritized above mountain ops employee safety. If something opens, it’s likely to be carpets and maybe Meadow.

Wednesday: I am guessing we will see delayed and limited operations. Resetting the entire mountain with roads, ramps, chair pads, sleds and signage is a huge task after a huge storm. As much as people cheer on these huge storms and fantasize about them, they are problematic.

Thursday: This is the first day I might expect to see anything close to normal operations, pending how strong that last wave is.

As of this minute, it looks like there could be some snow showers still on Friday, then clearing over the weekend. The next storm starts the following Monday and continues into the week. The GIF below shows 24 hour snow totals over the next 16 days.

It’s going to be an entirely different mountain if that all pans out. Here’s the latest GFS ensemble for total snowfall over the next 16 days:

The ensemble models are the most rational models. They compare things run to run and throw out some of the outlier data. Some of the operational single runs of various model are spitting out crazy numbers like 200+ inches over the next two weeks. Those sorts of numbers make you think about the big avalanche of 1982 that killed 7 people at Alpine Meadows. It’s much better to have consistent storms that are not so huge.

I hope to make some sort of powder turns tomorrow and the rest of the week…see you out there, I hope.