I Love Skiing But…

One of the maxims that you often hear about skiing is “You don’t know until you go.” But today was one of those days that it just wasn’t true. I had a very good idea of what today might be like. We had some exceptionally warm temperatures over the weekend, followed by temperatures that were a dozen degrees cooler today. Adding to that were the filtered sun and a steady east wind. It’s one of those days where I would have headed to Sherwood as soon as possible. Sadly, we knew Sherwood would be closed today.

Still we headed to the mountain and went through the usual process of getting ready to slide on the snow, however it might be. There were a grand total of 7 people in Locker Room 3 this morning, which makes a guy think that people did have an inkling of how things might turn out.

Ice, Sugar & Cookies

That sums up the conditions we found this morning off of Summit and Roundhouse. Hotter Wheels started the morning on a maintenance hold. Scott and Lakeview can be treacherous on these sort of morning, as in slide for life conditions. While there weren’t all that many people on the mountain, they were all at Roundhouse and Summit, and only on the groomed slopes. There were no avenues of escape. We found ourselves counting runs. Soon the talk of sitting on the couch and watching the Winter Olympics sounded kind of nice. Had I not done my taxes yesterday during the Super Bowl, I might have felt like that was a decent alternative.

I am certain that conditions may have improved had we gone to Treats for a cinnamon roll and coffee and waited for some thawing. But I am 62 days into my season, and tomorrow may offer better conditions.

Just a note regarding Sherwood, in case you were wondering. The mountain ops team is not just waiting around for snow to fall. We noted some snow fencing had already been put up this weekend. There were plans for more fencing, plus the possibility of constructing some berms that would help catch new snowfall before the winds transport it away. Although may of us might have continued to enjoy it today, we understand the mission.

Word on the street is that we may see similar closures on Lakeview and Scott this week for the same reasons, as well as additional snow making on Summer Road.

Snow Is Absolutely In The Forecast, But You Need To Pay Attention

The forecast is still looking great for snowfall. The forecast is holding. What’s changing is the timing of these systems. As of today, it looks like there will be a decent drive window for those looking to get to Tahoe on Thursday night or Friday. The tradeoff for that is that anyone hoping to get home on Sunday night or Monday might find some big challenges with increased snowfall, even at lower elevations and with increased winds disrupting visibility. Highway 80 closing during a winter storm is a pretty safe bet these days.

We’ve got a Winter Weather Advisory for this evening into Wednesday afternoon. Here’s the one from the Sacramento office of NOAA:

That’s still on track for the 13 inches I called for in my last post. But that is not all falling tonight. Don’t expect a powder day tomorrow. Think in terms of dust on crust for tomorrow. The point forecast shows 2 to 4 inches of snow during the day tomorrow, but it also mentions the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow. If you haven’t been paying attention, winter thunderstorms have been becoming a much more frequent occurrence. That could put a damper on some lift operations. The heaviest snowfall likely happens tomorrow night.

That much snow will be a boon to groomed runs. It will not be enough to cover icy moguls or rocky zones. Be patient, not stupid. More snow should follow.

The weekend storm still looks good for 2-4 feet. The models have been a little less consistent there, as the bulk of that storm is out of the 5 day window where model accuracy really improves. That snow is critical to rehabbing Sherwood, Scott, Lakeview and other areas of the mountain littered with icy moguls. There’s still a third storm lingering out there next week. Thank you Steve for your sacrifice. Here’s the latest run of the GFS ensemble with 16 day totals.

The ensembles are going to give you a more accurate picture than the operational runs. I’ve seen some Sierra weather hype machines advertising huge totals. As an example, here’s the last run of the GFS (not the ensemble run):

I am not saying that it won’t happen, but the safer bet is to go with ensembles. I do like that none of these are big AR events with huge snow totals. These are multi-day events with reasonable totals falling over time. This does three things:

• In general the slower pace of snowfall should reduce the increased avalanche danger from huge new snowfalls. That can get fouled up if we see variable snow levels or wind loading.
• It makes it easier for mountain ops teams to get out there and keep up with roads and ramps and getting snow here it is most needed.
• It reduces the powder fever of one big storm with one big powder day

Spring Music Scheduled

Music on the Sun Deck at the Alpine Meadows lodge has been a long standing spring tradition. We are always happy to see a commitment to keep that going. If this winter thing continues a bit, the next few shows will potentially be indoors. Also of note is that the schedule does go through April 26th. So much for the April 11th rumors…that said…weather and conditions permitting. Back to back days on 4/25 and 4/26 is an indication someone thinks that is closing weekend.

February 14	Golden Cadillacs
February 21	Bring Joy
February 28	Bolero
March 7	Josh Brough & The Contraband
March 14	Broken Compass Bluegrass
March 21	Joy & Madness
March 28	Lindsay & The Cheeks
April 4	Jive Machine
April 11	Allmond Bros Band
April 18	The Heeters
April 25	April Skene Band
April 26	Boot Juice

I ended up spending the bulk of my time with the Cricut machine, replacing two different 3D printed signs that have been stolen off of my locker this season. Why people, why? Also on my plate this afternoon is getting going on pulling together the artwork for the classic green and white rectangular sticker that seems to be the runaway favorite in our poll.

We shall try again tomorrow…see you out there.