aaRRRRgh!

Let’s get to your first question right away. Yes, Palisades Tahoe did open some limited terrain today. It was just the magic carpet at the First Venture area on the east end of the parking lot. No, I did not go to Palisades Tahoe to embrace the moment. Instead I did the drive to Mount Rose, did 5 quick laps, then decided it would be silly to go back before Monday. Ski conditions have not improved all that much since my last report, other than the fact that there are now 7 choices for skiing and riding in the Tahoe region.

Some of you might have already figured out the significance of today’s title. I am ready to call it the “Return of The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge”. The term “RRR” first was coined by weather expert Dr. Daniel Swain during the drought period that hit California with a vengeance between 2013 and 2015. During that period, a blocking ridge of high pressure sat in the Gulf Of Alaska for several winters. That ridge of high pressure seemed to be related to record high sea surface temperatures in that same area, which became known as “the Blob.”

The result of the RRR was significantly decreased snowfall. Here’s what it looked like for Alpine Meadows:

• 2012-2013: 60% of average
• 2013-2014: 53% of average
• 2014-2015: 36% of average

Yikes! Those are some really low numbers and the fact that the RRR spanned three winters is troublesome. That said, there is not yet a reason to believe that the same thing will happen this time. Obviously when seasonal snowfall and rainfall numbers are that low, there are far greater impacts than a limited ski season. Do we really need yet another reason for raising grocery prices even more or for more cancelled fire insurance plans?

The return of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is similar but different this time around. Back in 2013, the ridge was right in the Gulf of Alaska, which hindered the development of typical winter storms. But that placement did allow for occasional undercutting storms, which brought us some snow, just not in the usual amounts. It also allowed for cooler air to flow in from the Pacific, which allowed for better atmospheric mixing. That leads to fewer temperature inversions and a better ability for mountains to make man-made snow.

The location of the RRR this season is further south, with “the Blob” of warm water located more off the coast of Mexico. That means that the location of the ridging is more off the coast of California. The storms are generally tracking way to our north into Washington and Canada, or even further north. We have seen a couple of periods where an atmospheric river nudged the ridge eastward, bring us a lot of rain, but no cold air for snow. We have also seen the ridge retrograde west, allowing for some wrap around systems from the south that favored the Arizona Snowbowl, Lee Canyon near Las Vegas and Mammoth Mountain.

The lower position of the ridge has not allowed for any undercutting yet, keeping us dry. We have also seen some strong inversions. The central valley has seen an extended period of dense fog, causing very cold temperatures. The other day it was 45° in Winters and nearly 60° in Truckee. The dense pea soup fog conditions are very reminiscent of the 1976-1977 drought year. Although the seasonal snowfall was close to 50% that season, the amount of snowmaking capacity was pretty minimal at that time. Ski Incline, now Diamond Peak, was the one ski area that really stood out that season for me, with much more manmade snow than other Tahoe ski areas.

So the lower position of that ridge is not only blocking storms, it’s also bringing us unseasonably warm temperatures. Those temperatures may be nice for hiking and biking, but they make snowmaking a losing proposition. We had a good weather window this week for a couple of days, only to be followed by warm days and nights that want to take away those snowmaking gains. Ugh.

There have been a few hints of storms out there every once in a while. Most of them call for that around 10 days out. Almost every one of those looks like an atmospheric river event that could bring warm rains instead of snow. So we have to be careful what we wish for. We need a big pattern change, not just a pattern adjustment.

Seven Ski Areas To Choose From In Tahoe

There’s now seven ski areas open in Tahoe. That said, in all cases, it’s somewhere between 2% and 10% of each mountain that is actually open. Just about all of the terrain that is open is green circle or blue square terrain. Some areas have some park features, mostly rails and boxes. The gallery below is a compendium of what was available today, with the green highlighting open terrain. Click on any one of the images to get into gallery mode.

Homewood, Donner Ski Ranch and Diamond Peak have delayed openings.

The only one of these places I have been is Mount Rose, thanks to the fortuitous decision to get an Off Peak pass again this season. I did my eleventh day there this morning against my better judgment. Of course it was a busy Saturday with just about all of the Mount Rose teams getting started. But they also added the Wizard lift today, and I have a fondness for that lift, having spent several early season days just on that lift. Only the Dragon’s Tail run was open, and it so happens I have never skied that particular green circle run off of the Wizard.

I’ve Pretty Much Stopped Looking

I have to stop doing the doom scroll of weather models. I am waiting for a trusted forecaster to call for a big pattern change within the 10 day window of believability. Once that happens, I will start looking at the finer details again. Otherwise, it is a good time to just enjoy what we do have, as I don’t expect any significant improvement in ski and ride conditions any time soon. That includes making any sort of prognostication on an opening date for Alpine Meadows. I just don’t see it. I will keep skiing a few days a week at Mount Rose because I can, and it is still fun.

The biking has been pretty good, with some caveats. Just within the town of Truckee there’s roughly 25 miles of paved bike trails and I feel like I have ridden every one of them a dozen times this fall. The window for good riding is short. There’s potential for ice and frost in the morning, and again in the afternoon when it gets shady. There’s a few hours midday where you can get in a good ride without dressing like you’re going skiing.

Several people have chimed in that mountain bike riding is “all time”, and it likely is in lower elevations. At higher elevations, that may not be so true. On one hand, I’ve been telling you that it’s been dry, leading you to believe that trails have dried out. Nope. Most areas are seeing heavy overnight frosts, which then melts during the day, wetting the soil. But before the soil can dry out, the process repeats itself. So most trails are getting wetter and wetter, with increasing levels of mud. If you time it just right, you can ride the frozen mud, but if you get it wrong you will be leaving trenches behind and that is not a good thing. Our mountain bikes are put away until we take a trip to lower elevations.

As I suggested we followed through and did a camping trip to the coast last week. It’s nearly impossible to get reservations at some beach campgrounds during most months. But being the first week of December, we were able to snag a very nice, almost oceanfront, site at New Brighton State Beach near Santa Cruz. We enjoyed some nice beach walks, warm weather, bike rides and some Marianne’s Ice Cream. It’s probably not going to be our last trip to the coast if the snow situation does not improve. I would encourage you to take advantage of those sorts of opportunities too.

❄️ Think Snow, Think Cold ❄️