Hints Of Change

It’s been a little over a week since I last posted. I’ve been patiently waiting for some hint that there might be some change in the models. We started seeing some deviations from the endless high pressure regime a couple of days ago. Some sources cherry picked a couple of model runs showing the potential for a game changer weather system roughly around the 7th of November. Now that we have seen some consistency for a few days that something will happen in that time frame, it’s time to mention it here at Unofficial Alpine.

Here’s the mountain temps we are seeing this morning locally. That is a very strong inversion. Not only is that preventing any snowmaking, it’s the sort of temperatures that melt snow that fell during the last two systems.

The one place that has the temperatures to allow snow making is at the Palisades Tahoe base area, where the cold air sinks in the valley. Snow making would be even better in my backyard, which is currently at 28°, being in one of the lower spots in Truckee.

The mountain biking has been really good lately. I rode the Sawtooth Ridge zone in shorts and a t-shirt yesterday afternoon. The heavy overnight frost has been keeping the trails damp and tacky. That said, the strong winds earlier in the week covered trails with a lot of pine needles and debris. The shadows are also getting longer, making visibility a challenge at times. I am ready for ski season for sure, but mountain biking is a great substitute.

The GIF of the latest GEFS run below shows how we move out of the big ridge and get some weak troughs moving through next week. I’ll remind you that reddish brown colors represent high pressure and bluish colors represent low pressure.

There seems to be two different systems, one around Thursday and another next weekend. Neither of those appear particularly strong yet. But it is something, and they are within the 10 day window of believability. If nothing else, they will allow for some winds that will break this inversion pattern. Beyond day 10, the models don’t commit to either high or low pressure, which is seldom seen. Noncommittal at best.

We could see a couple of days of offshore winds early next week. This happens when we have high pressure inland and low pressure off the coast. Offshore winds at this time of year generally lead to increased fire danger. Yikes.

Looking at the potential for snowfall, here’s the GEFS total snowfall projection through mid-November. Mother Nature has no big plans yet. But hopefully the mixing out of the atmosphere will allow snow making teams to do their work.

The Robots Want Your Money

It seems like everyone wants to jump onto the Artificial Intelligence bandwagon these days. We have AI powering our web searches, AI enabled navigation in our cars, apps that will try on clothing for us and sites that will generate AI recipes given a list of our favorite ingredients. Honestly, I am not sure that we really need all of that, given the intensive power needs for artificial intelligence.

I received an offer in my email from a locally popular weather source this week, offering the latest in AI weather forecasting tools:

For roughly 20 cents a day for a one year subscription, the app will provide you with all of these nifty things. Hmmmmm. The National Weather Service starting playing with AI decades ago, as did several other countries. NOAA has been using AI models since the early ’90s. These are the models (GFS, Euro, Canadian, ICON) that we talk about all season. These are widely available for free. That said, the “Peaks AI Model” tries to show snowfall at particular elevations which may be useful for some. Then there’s those “11-15 day forecasts”, that part of the forecast that I am always referring to as “Fantasyland.” Yeah, don’t count on that being accurate.

I plan to continue to offer weather information for skiers and riders here for free, with no subscription required. I do appreciate those readers that have already “bought us a coffee” to keep the electrons flowing at our ISP. You all rock.

Mom Update: She’s out of the hospital and currently building strength in rehab. It gets murky after that… Thanks to all for your well wishes.