Does Anybody Really Know?

My countdown timer says I am just ten days away from making my first ski turns of the ’25-26 ski season. While I am certain that I am going to find enough snow to make those turns, the question remains about what the rest of the season might offer. Some of the other ski blogs and weather guys are starting to post their pre-season thoughts, and if one thing is sure, there is not total agreement. That said, I am still willing to give some thoughts. I will either be right or wrong, but more often than not I am right.

The Potential For La Niña

Back when we started this blog 17 years ago, everybody was all about El Niño years and the potential for bringing big storms to the Sierra. Warmer waters in the tropical Pacific define El Niño and that supports a jet stream that can aim the jet stream right at California. El Niño years have often brought us a couple of big events, the biggest being the winter of 1982. That was the year of the big Alpine Meadows avalanche. The winter of 1986 was also an El Niño year, and it brought disastrous flooding to Northern California.

But more recently we have had a couple of really great winters, with a La Niña pattern in place. Suddenly, “La Niña” became the poster child for the snowiest years in the Sierra. Here’s a classic DVD cover from Matchstick Productions that illustrates the adoration of the pattern that can bring big snows…sometimes.

So let’s let the experts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center give the simple overview of the pattern. Here’s the infographic depicting La Niña conditions:

That’s not an ideal setup. As skiers and riders that enjoy snowfall, we would rather have the polar jet stream bringing us colder storms aimed right at California. In the La Niña pattern, that blocking high pressure can retrograde away from the Gulf of Alaska every once in a while, allowing for short bursts of polar jet activity. Otherwise we rely on the Pacific jet stream to bring us storms. Typically those storms are warmer but do carry some potential for occasional atmospheric river events that when the cold air and jet stream match up just right can lead to more snowfall.

Last season was also a La Niña season. It was not a banner year for Sierra resorts. At Alpine Meadows, we ended the season with 80% of average snowfall at the base areas. For rainfall we were right about 100% of average. We didn’t have a great big powder storm until April 1st. I am in the camp that says I am okay with that. Without a bunch of early season hype, the ski areas were not as crowded, we spent less time sitting in traffic or bogged down in the checkout lines of local grocery stores. I still got in 180+ days of skiing.

The were some great years for La Niña, with the winter of ’22-’23 being the most recent. That was the last time we skied Alpine Meadows on the Fourth of July.

Truth be told, looking at the last ten El Niño years in California, only three of them turned out wetter than average. Out of the last ten La Niña years in California, only three of them have turned out wetter than average. Looking at that data, the ENSO, when looked at in isolation, is a poor indicator of what might happen over the next ski season.

“The Blob” Returns

The world is currently getting warmer overall. That is a fact. Yes, we see colder periods at times, but on the average we are getting warmer. More worrisome is that it’s happening faster than climate scientists predicted. Several respected meteorologists have pointed out the presence of exceptionally warm waters in the northern pacific ocean this summer. That warm water is now expected to persist into the winter months. That “blob” of water water is very efficient at fostering very strong high pressure ridges.

During the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons, we became way too familiar with the terms of “The Blob” and the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (aka RRR). That strong ridging meant that storms were rare during those two seasons and California fell into a period of drought. It got so dry in California that it took a couple of really big winters to recover.

This is worrisome. As someone that loves snow and sliding on snow, I am not rooting for another round of drought. I also would not want to see the greater fire danger associated with drought, nor the higher food prices that are associated with drought. But I think it’s fair to mention the possibility.

The Current Outlook From The Pros at NOAA

Putting together all of the factors that influence our weather, on a scientific basis, the meteorological experts at NOAA updated their seasonal forecasts a week ago. Here they are, one for temperature and one for precipitation.

The most important thing to note about these is the common misconception that these forecasts are quantitative. They are not. Darker brown does not indicate regions which will be even drier, it indicates the regions that have a greater chance of being drier.

Looking at the North Tahoe region, we remain in the white “equal chances” of wetter or drier and warmer or colder during the winter months of December January and February. In simple terms, it means it’s reasonable to expect a near average winter again. I hope that is exactly what happens.

Then There’s The Nonscientific Factors To Consider

The squirrels are busy. As I have been riding various mountain bike trails around town, the pine cone harvest has been fast and furious. Other people have noted the same observation on the socials, hoping it’s a sign of a big winter. If you pay attention to the current political shenanigans in this country, it’s not a far stretch to believe that the squirrels are smarter than all of us.

Then there are a couple of my ski buddies that have predicted a much better than average chance of a great winter based on recent life events. Unofficial Alpine intern Unpossible will become a first time father any day now, and that will likely have a big impact on his upcoming ski season.

Then there’s my buddy, whom goes by the handle Skier666, that just posted this unfortunate X-Ray from his travels in the southern hemisphere:

Oh man, Skier666 enjoys skiing almost as much as I do! While most people would say that is an absolute guarantee of the biggest season ever, I hope that this is not the case. In any case, both of these friends will be getting their ski fix largely from Unofficial Alpine and their Insta feeds this winter. 🙁

Even More Nuts…

The skies have been remarkably free of chem trails over that last month. I forget, do chem trails cause more rain and snowfall or less? I am sure that the usual suspects will check in here with their theories about chem trails, HAARP and weather modification. I will delete those comments as I usually do.

So as the title implies, there are no clear signs about the potential for an extra snowy winter, nor for a drier winter. I hope to be happy with whatever snowfall we do get. Right about now, I should be thinking about packing for my first day of the ski season. It’s coming up very soon.